USMCA is close to being a done deal. The trade agreement between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada just needs to be ratified.

But the U.S. still hasn’t removed tariffs on steel and aluminum. Canada has some leverage in getting them removed before signing, but that doesn’t necessarily mean pressure tactics are the right move.

To muddy the waters even more, the U.S. Department of Commerce launched an investigation into steel dumping allegations from Canada, China, and Mexico as recently as February 27. It was initiated based on a request from the American Institute of Steel Construction (AISC), which says Canada sells steel in the U.S. at a discount of as much as 30 per cent and receives unfair government subsidies.

There’s more than one way to skin this cat. The Ontario government called on Ottawa to drop retaliatory tariffs Canada imposed in response. Canadian officials have threatened not to ratify USMCA until the tariffs are removed.

Jean Simard, president of the Aluminium Association of Canada, says Ottawa should stick to its guns on both issues.

“The two put together contribute to keeping the right level of tension in addition to the self-imposed impacts of the U.S. tariffs on the U.S. domestic industry,” Simard told Yahoo Finance Canada.

“Canada is aligned with leaders in Trump’s own party in Congress (Senator Grassley), the business community that Trump has asked to help lead USMCA advocacy in Congress (U.S. Chamber of Commerce) and labour (Steelworkers). Canada has leverage, but the bigger point is that there is a massive coalition in the U.S. that will demand it.”

Catherine Cobden, president of the Canadian Steel Producers Association, agrees.

“As for USMCA, it is difficult to ratify a new free trade agreement with these steel and aluminum tariffs in place between our two countries,” Cobden told Yahoo Finance Canada.

“Nine months into this situation, the tariffs are having a negative impact on both sides of the border and support is growing in the U.S. as well for their removal.”

Trade lawyer at MAAW Law Mark Warner says not ratifying USMCA isn’t a credible threat.

“Canada has made similar threats before and had to back down and Americans know Trudeau has a majority government and can make his trained seals dance when he wants, so I doubt the U.S. expects Parliament to pass USMCA before Congress acts even though the Trump Administration would probably find that to be helpful,” Warner told Yahoo Finance Canada.

Warner says Canadian demands won’t do any great harm but have the potential to backfire.

“Unless it emboldens Democrats in Congress to block USMCA and encourages Trump to up the ante by notifying a withdrawal from the existing NAFTA to gain leverage over Congress,” said Warner.