Australia Telecoms Industry Report 2024-2031, Featuring Key Telecommunications Operator Profiles for Telstra, Optus, TPG Telecom Group, Vocus, Aussie Broadband, Superloop and Uniti
Globally, the telecommunications sector is proving to be a core and essential infrastructure service to national economies, with data infrastructure becoming critical in a connected world and will likely increasingly attract a new class of investors such as large infrastructure funds. The Australian telecommunications industry is forecast to remain steady thanks to the defensiveness nature of the industry, amid the uncertain economic outlook and inflationary pressure.
In 2023, telecoms trends inverted with mobile subscribers growing strongly while the fixed broadband market flattened with NBN losing customers for the first time. Mobile subscriptions are forecast to grow at an annual average rate of 2.3% in 2024-31 and fixed broadband subscribers at an average rate of 1.4% over the same period. Total telecommunications revenue will reach AUD45 billion by 2031.
Telstra's share of the telecommunications revenue pie has been declining over the last 5 years and its EBITDA share is declining even faster as Telstra's dominance in the fixed-line market is challenged with the migration to the NBN.
The Australia Telecoms Industry Report shows the capital expenditure (Capex) from telecommunications operators is coming off from an all-time peak between 2017 to 2018 due to the NBN investments in upgrading Australia's fixed broadband infrastructure. The publisher expects Capex investments to remain sustained to accommodate for data usage growth, mobile coverage expansion and capacity improvements. NBN expects an increasing Capex spend from 2024 to bring 75% of its fixed-line footprint to 100Mbps speeds and above but excludes a clear plan to a gigabit speeds network upgrade to full-fibre. Instead, NBN will be required to continually invest in HFC and fixed wireless to increase capacity and accommodate more customers and higher data usage.
Investments in the telecoms sector bottomed out in 2021 and telecommunications service providers are expected to maintain growth momentum in 2024-31, to an average rate of 1.6% by 2031.
Mobile Subscribers and Revenue
The mobile subscriber market increased between 2017 and 2023 with Telstra and Optus growing their postpaid subscriber base and Telstra also increasing its MVNO and IoT subscribers significantly over the same period 2017-23 period. The publisher estimates the Australian mobile subscribers will increase on the back of population growth and Internet of Things subscribers take-up.
Mobile network operators are facing limited competitive pressure after the market shifting to unlimited voice and text and data allowance as the sole offering differentiator. Operators are now indexing their pricing to inflation allowing them to increase pricing.
Australia is now in the unfortunate position of being the only country in the developed world with a higher average mobile speed compared to fixed broadband as per Ookla speed tests. 5G & 6G subscribers are forecast to represent 90% of all mobile subscribers by 2030.
Broadband Subscribers & the NBN
The broadband subscribers growth is forecast to be sustained by household growth and a reduction of the number of underserved premises previously not able to connect now served by the Internet but now served by the NBN.
By 2023, the report forecasts most subscribers migrated to NBN broadband services with a few remaining ADSL services in fixed wireless and satellites services and a number of fibre premises provided by greenfield operators and in-fill operators supplying wholesale services on the same terms as NBN. Uniti, other smaller greenfield operators and TPG are sharing the non-NBN market. Starlink is forecast to become the largest regional player in the country, edging out NBN over time by 2031.
Thematics - Fibre Sale / 6G / M&A
With 5G a reality now in Australia, telco operators can now do an arbitrage of NBN speeds in areas where the copper lines are very long or in poor health and thus offer a faster service over 5G than NBN at an equivalent price for some segments of the market and some geographies. NBN is now well engaged in its FTTP upgrade program with 3.5m premises eligible for FTTP upgrade out of 8.6m including HFC which is not yet slated for a full-fibre upgrade.
At the current rate of FTTP upgrade adoption, it will take NBN about 20 years just to upgrade its existing FTTN and FTTC subscribers highlighting its on-demand fibre upgrade program requires an overhaul shift to a systematic upgrade of premises providing scale and reduced unit costs, as many FTTP programs have shown around the world.
This report shows subdued growth due to ARPU pressure compounded by margin pressure in the fixed broadband market is pushing telcos to look for outside opportunities to increase scale. The publisher expects another wave of consolidation in Australia, similar to the 2010-2015 period, post-NBN rollout as margins get squeezed further. Smaller NBN resellers will struggle to compete and sell out to larger operators. Some market players outside the telco market are seeking growth by exploring ways to increase their scope of products and services offerings. The report outlines examples of some newcomers branching out by reselling broadband access services as a churn reduction strategy and increasing consumers' share of wallet.
The Australia Telecoms Industry Report transactions database analysis highlights a resurgence of activity since 2020 and the market's appetite for larger deals with the Vodafone/TPG merger, Uniti acquisition and the sale of mobile operators' drawing interests from infrastructure investors for other fibre assets.
Key Topics Covered:
1 Key Statistics
2 Overall Telecommunications Market, 2017-2031 2.1 Market Overview 2.2 Australia's Race to Lead in 5G and Beyond 2.3 Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2017-2023 2.4 Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2023-2031 2.5 Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2017-2031
3 Telecommunications Operators Profile
Telstra
Optus
TPG Telecom Group
Vocus
Aussie Broadband
Superloop
Uniti
4 Australia Mobile market 4.1 Australia Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2017-2031 4.2 Australia Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2016-2031 4.3 Mobile Coverage 4.4 Spectrum Holdings 4.5 Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends 4.6 Mobile Speed Tests 4.7 Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNO) 4.8 Internet of Things (IoT)
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