Apple could still see historic iPhone sales despite the coronavirus

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The global coronavirus outbreak continues to send markets on a rollercoaster ride, and on Tuesday concerns over the virus pushed the Fed to cut rates ahead of its planned March meeting. But as supply chain disruptions and consumer spending have whipsawed stocks, Apple (AAPL), one of the world’s most valuable tech firms, could still see historic sales of its iPhone in the next fiscal year.

According to at least one prominent Wall Street analyst, Apple’s robust ecosystem of devices and services, coupled with demand for 5G-capable iPhones, could see the company sell more than 231 million phones in 2021, beating the previous record of 231 million set in 2015.

“To this point, taking a step back while the last few weeks has been an exogenous ‘shock event’ to Apple's ecosystem on both the supply and demand side due to its China exposure, we believe this will be short lived as the longer term 5G super cycle thesis and services re-rating remain the crux of our bull thesis on Apple for the next 12 to 18 months,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a note on Tuesday.

Factories are coming back online

Apple, like many consumer goods companies, was hit particularly hard by the coronavirus outbreak in China thanks in equal parts to its massive reliance on the country’s manufacturing capabilities to drive its supply chain, and its enormous customer base in the country.

Credit: David Foster/Yahoo Finance
Credit: David Foster/Yahoo Finance

Foxconn, which produces the majority of Apple’s iPhones in China, was forced to idle its factories amid the Chinese government’s order to extend the Lunar New Year in February and mass quarantining of millions in the Wuhan region.

Apple CEO Tim Cook told Fox Business during a Feb. 27 interview that the company’s manufacturing partners are continuing to ramp up their production capabilities, which will help Apple build out its inventory of devices.

China is also Apple’s third largest revenue generator by region behind Europe and the U.S., earning the company $13.58 billion of its total $91.81 billion revenue in Q1 2020. During the height of the outbreak, the company closed its stores across mainland China, significantly limiting sales in the country.

As a result, on Feb. 17, Apple sent a letter to investors saying the company would miss its Q2 revenue guidance, and chose not to set a new guidance range. Cook also hasn’t said whether he believes the damage to Apple’s bottom line will be limited to Q2, or if it will bleed into Q3.

The iPhone 12 is coming

Apple CEO Tim Cook attends the world premiere of Apple's "The Morning Show" at David Geffen Hall on Monday, Oct. 28, 2019, in New York. (Photo by Evan Agostini/Invision/AP)
Apple CEO Tim Cook attends the world premiere of Apple's "The Morning Show" at David Geffen Hall on Monday, Oct. 28, 2019, in New York. (Photo by Evan Agostini/Invision/AP)

Despite the potential impact of the coronavirus on Apple’s Q2 and Q3, Ives says the company will be fine in the long run, especially as the iPhone 12 hits the market in September and October.