IPO market to recover over the next year: Expert
Lineage (LINE) debuted on the Nasdaq on Thursday, raising $4.4 billion in its IPO (initial public offering) and making it the largest IPO seen in 2024. With inflation putting pressure on all corners of the economy, the market has seen a dip in IPOs. Citi co-head of equity capital markets for North America Paul Abrahimzadeh joins Market Domination Overtime to discuss the state of the IPO market and its road to recovery. "I think we've had a lot of good data points year to date. IPO volumes up over 100% year over year. That's off a low watermark. When you look at the backdrop with the S&P (^GSPC) up 15% this year after a 40% rise last year, the sixth-best rise in history last year, you've got a lot of factors that are driving issuance," Abrahimzadeh explains. "You've got the market trading within 5% of all-time highs. We're trading at 21 times on the S&P on a forward PE basis [price-to-earnings ratio]. That's a 12% premium to the ten-year trailing average. So there are a lot of reasons why issuers want to bring deals to market." Abrahimzadeh notes that while markets this year have been focused on large-cap growth, "the reality is the aperture is widening" — especially as the Russell 2000 (^RUT) small-cap index has been on the move. He believes that "the private market is starting to thaw" in the post-pandemic period: "The market is showing some green shoots. We're seeing an increase in valuations for sequential rounds. We're seeing less structure in the current period. But the reality is the IPO market's offering excessive demand. There's plenty of demand to get companies public at rich valuations. And deals are generally doing well." Abrahimzadeh notes that 50% of IPO deals year-to-date have priced either at the high end or above their range, and the average day-one performance is up 15%, creating a "very good environment to bring companies public." While the market continues to thaw, Abrahimzadeh also believes "the jewel box is going to open in the next 12 to 18 months." For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Market Domination Overtime. This post was written by Melanie Riehl
