Last week's report that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell in the first quarter at an annualized rate of 0.3% is a warning, not an epitaph. The economy's resilience has limits amid tariffs, government job and spending cuts, and falling business and consumer confidence. While we are not calling for a recession, we are reducing our 2025 estimate for GDP growth to 0.5% from 1.3%. The fact that we are even using the "R word" is significant because there have been only seven recessions in the last 50 years. The U.S. economy is no quitter. Notable events within the last few years -- including two quarters of negative GDP growth, 500 basis points of interest rate increases by the Fed, a nearly 900-basis-point jump in the Consumer Price Index inflation rate, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and an inverted yield curve - didn't push a resilient (and stimulus-aided) U.S. economy into recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which is the official recession arbiter, defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months." When we exclude the surge in imports (which reduce GDP) ahead of expected tariffs, GDP noticeably softened in 1Q. But with consumer spending up 1.8% and even home building adding to growth, we would not call it a significant decline. Among other economic reports last week, nonfarm payrolls are one of the indicators that the NBER watches closely. We believe the better-than-expected increase of 177,000 jobs in April and 1.2% growth on a year-over-year basis are encouraging. The Labor Department's diffusion index indicated that more than half of 250 private industries are hiring. Real personal income excluding transfer receipts, another gauge the NBER watches, rose 1.4% from a year earlier. Looking forward, we expect GDP to grow 0.2% in 2Q, 0.8% in 3Q, and 1.5% in 4Q. Our 2026 growth estimate is 1.8%, down from 1.9%.

In this edition, performance coatings priced for bargain hunters; tariffs change playbook on technology investments; replacing artificial food dyes unlikely to stain Packaged foods' prospects; and AbbVie, Intel, and Netflix. .

Walmart serves as a leading retailer in the United States, with its strategy predicated on superior operating efficiency and offering the lowest priced goods to consumers to drive robust store traffic and product turnover. Walmart augmented its low-price business strategy by offering a convenient one-stop shopping destination with the opening of its first supercenter in 1988. Today, Walmart operates over 4,600 stores in the United States (5,200 including Sam’s Club) and over 10,000 locations globally. Walmart generated over $460 billion in domestic namesake sales in fiscal 2025, with Sam’s Club contributing another $90 billion to the company's top line. Internationally, Walmart generated $120 billion in sales. The retailer serves around 270 million customers globally each week.

Walmart serves as a leading retailer in the United States, with its strategy predicated on superior operating efficiency and offering the lowest priced goods to consumers to drive robust store traffic and product turnover. Walmart augmented its low-price business strategy by offering a convenient one-stop shopping destination with the opening of its first supercenter in 1988. Today, Walmart operates over 4,600 stores in the United States (5,200 including Sam’s Club) and over 10,000 locations globally. Walmart generated over $460 billion in domestic namesake sales in fiscal 2025, with Sam’s Club contributing another $90 billion to the company's top line. Internationally, Walmart generated $120 billion in sales. The retailer serves around 270 million customers globally each week.