Based in Pontiac, Michigan, UWM Holdings Corp. is a wholesale mortgage originator that focuses on broker services rather than direct-to-consumer loans. It generates revenue from three segments: loan production, loan servicing, and interest income. UWMC is the leading wholesale mortgage lender in the U.S., with a 43% share of the wholesale market and acts as a conduit for mortgage brokers in all 50 states. The company has approximately 8,000 employees.

The markets have turned up after a down morning. This follows the Fed day yesterday. Chairman Powell used this phrase, 'uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased' and deleted this one, 'risks to achieving employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance'. The Fed forecast still shows two rate cuts in 2025. Argus is sticking with our view that also predicts two rate ruts this year. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is at 4.21%. Oil is at $67 per barrel. Bitcoin is near $85,700.

Based in Pontiac, Michigan, UWM Holdings Corp. is a wholesale mortgage originator that focuses on broker services rather than direct-to-consumer loans. It generates revenue from three segments: loan production, loan servicing, and interest income. UWMC is the leading wholesale mortgage lender in the U.S., with a 44% share of the wholesale market and acts as a conduit for mortgage brokers in all 50 states. The company has approximately 8,000 employees.

Equity investors don't seem to have a lot to worry about as we move toward 2025. Still, there is always something to worry about. As we see it, the big technical issues are the multiple weekly momentum divergences on the S&P 500 (SPX) and the futures positions of the smart money commercial hedgers in the major indices. As well, as of this writing, the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are working on only their first weekly momentum divergence. And yes, market participants are pretty bulled up -- especially in the options market. For the SPX, the Chande Trend Meter is a strong 88% and 70% of stocks in the index are above their 200-day average (bullish, yet down from 85% in September and October). As well, the index is at an all-time high; daily and weekly charts are approaching (but are not yet at) overbought momentum territory; the Bullish Percent Index (the percentage of stocks in the index on point-and-figure buy signals) is bullish at 71% (but lower than the 81% from September); the daily and weekly Vortex Indicator are bullish; the slope of the advance is not too steep (as calls for a possible year-end melt-up have not yet materialized); and the advance-decline line and advancing volume-declining volume line on the index are at or near all-time high territory. So if all those technical indicators are positive, is there only one direction for them to go? Well, they can always get even more bullish -- but yes, the above is a legitimate question. Bull markets tend to last longer than many expect and often go further than the fundamental news sometimes suggests is reasonable. December is the trickiest month to trade. Should one sell big winners and pay capital-gains tax or wait until early in the next year? Or sell some losers to offset capital gains? If a portfolio is behind, what can be done to catch up? These questions are asked every December. One option is to fade break-outs (some are working, like AAPL) and buy break-downs. That is basically the opposite of what is usually done during the other 11 months of a bull-market year. At the end of a good year, portfolio managers and RIAs 'can't' sell a certain stock if it's up 100% and subject to large capital-gains taxes. While these big gains can be offset a bit by tax-loss harvesting, many just hold big winners until the next year. Others recognize that the purpose of the investment game is to make big money -- and if that means taxes must be paid, then the job was well done.