Ulta Beauty is a leading retailer of cosmetics, fragrances, skin care, haircare, bath, and beauty products, with a salon services segment specializing in hair styling and make-up. Founded in 1990, the company is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois, and has approximately 20,000 full time employees. The company operates over 1,400 retail stores across 50 states.

CEOs on Tariffs Over the weekend, President Trump revised his tariff plan for electronics. The market will be on edge again this week, waiting for any more tariff surprises and pondering the announcements already made. Meanwhile, this is the first full week of earnings and Wall Street will hear from CEOs about how tariffs may impact their individual businesses. It also is a short trading week, with markets closed for Good Friday. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both gained 5% and the Nasdaq rose 3%. However, all three indices are still negative for the year, as the DJIA has declined 5%, the S&P 500 is down 9%, and the Nasdaq has lost 13%. The earnings calendar kicks into high gear this week. Some companies that already reported held back their guidance for 2025 because of tariff uncertainty. Goldman Sachs reports on Monday; Bank of America, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson, and United Airlines on Tuesday; Abbott Labs on Wednesday; and Taiwan Semiconductor and UnitedHealth Group on Thursday. Consensus estimates for 1Q25 EPS growth range from about 3%-8%. This follows 17% growth in 4Q24 EPS and 9% growth in 3Q24, according to LSEG I/B/E/S. Leading sectors for 1Q25 are expected to be Healthcare and Information Technology. Growth from the Mag 7, at about 18% collectively, is expected to outpace overall growth. On the downside, earnings from the Energy sector are expected to decline 15%. For 2025, our full-year earnings estimate is $276, implying low-double-digit growth from 2024 levels. On the economic calendar, Retail Sales for March are due out on Wednesday. This detailed report will show consumer priorities for spending and will be parsed carefully following consumer sentiment data last Friday that showed an erosion in consumer confidence. Retail Sales is Argus Chief Economist Chris Graja's Economic Call of the Week. Chris expects Retail Sales to rise more than 3% on a year-over-year basis. Chris offered the following. 'We expect to see that sales got a turbo-charged boost because car buyers made purchases in advance of tariff implementation. Light vehicle sales, which were reported at the beginning of the month, jumped to an annual pace of 17.77 million units from 16.01 million in February, a weather-depressed 15.49 million rate in January, and a robust 16.87 million in December (which was probably helped by tariff expectations and year-end deals to clear inventories). We hope that 16 million vehicles doesn't prove to be a ceiling rather than a floor in coming months. We will also watch for slowing in the non-store retail category, which is dominated by e-commerce. Growth has averaged 7.1% over the last 12 months, but has declined to 5.5% over the last three months. Food services and drinking places will also be important in the data mix. They are classified in the GDP report as a part of the big and very important services category. Growth at restaurants has been slowing. The six-month average is 3.2%. A print below the three-month average of 2.68% might be sign that consumers are pulling back. 'We will keep watching the St. Louis Fed's Financial Stress Index (FSI). Last Thursday's release, covering the week which ended on April 4, showed that the FSI ticked above zero (0.0944) for the first time in more than a year. The positive reading signaled above-average financial stress after President Trump made his blockbuster tariff announcement on April 2. We care about indicators like this one (which is based on 18 weekly data series) and the OFR Financial Stress Index from the U.S. Treasury Department (based on 33 variables) because free-flowing financial markets are so important to the economy. The recent index level is still below other 'stressful' events. For comparison, the index moved above 1 for a single week coinciding with the failure of Silicon Valley bank in 2023. It moved above 2.0, peaking above 9 during the Lehman Brothers crisis in 2008. The index also rose above 2 and peaked above 5 at the onset of COVID-19 in March 2020.' Last week featured good news on inflation. CPI slowed to 2.4% in March, down from 2.8% in February. Core CPI decelerated to 2.8% versus 3.1%. Elsewhere, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow measure forecasts a decline of 2.4% for 1Q, signaling contraction. The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast forecasts a 2.4% rate for CPI for April, in-line with the March rate. Mortgage Rates edged down two basis points, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now at 6.62%, according to FreddieMac. Gas prices rose six cents to an average of $3.24 per gallon for regular gas. Looking ahead, the next Fed's rate decision is on May 7 and the odds are at 40% for a rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch rate tool. After that, the next meeting is on June 18, when odds jump to 69% for a cut. WEBINAR ANNOUNCEMENT Argus Research will host its monthly Outlook & Ideas Webinar for clients at 11 a.m. ET on Wednesday, May 7, 2025. This webinar is titled Communication Services Disruptors, and will be hosted by Argus Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA. Jim will be joined by Senior Technology, Media, and Telecommunications Analyst Joe Bonner, CFA, as well as several other analysts. During the webinar, we'll share our outlooks and top stock picks for the Communications Services sector as well as offshoot areas such as mobility, travel, gaming, retail, and food delivery. Please note that the CFP Board has Argus' Outlook & Ideas Webinar for one (1) hour of continuing education (CE) credit. The webinar, as always, will be interactive with a question-and-answer period. We will be recording the webinar, and a rebroadcast will be available on the password-protected portion of our website. Slides related to the presentation will be posted on our website the day of the webinar and will be available via the webcast itself. Please visit https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/9039848598161659993 to register. If you have any problems registering, please contact us at clientservices@argusresearch.com or by calling (212) 425-7500.

With more than 1,400 freestanding stores and 600 Target shop-in-shops, Ulta Beauty is the largest specialized beauty retailer in the US. The firm offers cosmetics (39% of 2024 sales), fragrances (13%), skin care (23%), and hair care products (19%). It also offers salon services, including hair, makeup, skin, and brow, that account for about 4% of its revenue and drive traffic. In addition, it collects royalties through its Target partnership and credit card revenue. Most standalone Ulta stores are approximately 10,000 square feet and are in suburban strip centers. The firm will soon open franchised stores in Mexico and has formed a joint venture to expand into the Middle East. Ulta was founded in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.