If President Trump can keep the "Misery Index" below the current 7.0% for the next four years, it would be a great success that would probably take bond yields lower and stock prices higher. Reducing it below 6.7% at the end of his term would, in our opinion, be an outstanding economic performance. The Misery Index is a measure of consumers' well-being that adds the unemployment rate and the annual inflation rate, which are also important to the Fed's dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. A lower index value is better. The index was invented by economist Arthur Okun in the 1970s. In January 2025, the index stood at 7.0%. The January unemployment rate was 4.0% and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 3.0%. The current Misery Index is below the 9.2% average since 1949 and well below "stagflation" peaks around 20% during the Ford and Carter presidencies. There are many things a president can't control, such as the sudden outbreak of a global pandemic or the economic conditions when he takes office. It may take more than a decade to fully assess a president's policies. But in real politics, inflation and unemployment, along with gasoline prices, may be major factors in why voters reelect a president (or the incumbent's party) or vote for change as they did in 2024 or may in the upcoming midterm elections.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Jim typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO); Eaton Corporation PLC (ETN); International Business Machine (IBM); Intercontinental Exchange Inc (ICE) and the Focus List deletions are Invesco Ltd (IVZ); 3M Co. (MMM); SAP SE (SAP); TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX).

Tractor Supply Co. with 2024 sales of $14.9 billion, offers a broad range of items for home, land, pet and livestock owners who generally have above average income and a below average cost of living. TSCO, based in Brentwood, Tennessee, has five product categories: Livestock, Equine & Agriculture (26% of sales), Companion Animal (pet) (26% of sales); Seasonal & Recreation Products (23%); Hardware, Tools, and Truck (16%); Clothing, Gift & Decorating (10%) and Agriculture (3%). More than 85% of the company's customers have pets and animals. The company ended 2024 with more than 2,500 stores in 49 states: 2,296 under the Tractor Supply banner and 206 Petsense stores. Sixty-one percent of stores are free standing and 39% are in shopping centers. Texas has 261 stores. North Carolina has 122; Florida, 115; Georgia, 116; Pennsylvania, 114; Michigan 109; Tennessee 105; and Ohio 105. Stores are typically an hour, or more, outside of major cities. Digital sales are about 8% of the company's total. The goal is 10%-12%. Formed in 1982 from the assets of a catalog company that had been selling farm supplies since 1938, Tractor Supply is converting its older stores to larger formats (17,000-19,000 square feet) and opening new smaller-format stores and distribution centers beyond its core Southern and Midwestern markets. The company has more than 50,000 employees. TSCO shares are a component of the S&P 500. The Company's IPO was in May 1994. TSCO's year ends on the last Saturday of December, which is December 27 this year.