Weekly Tee Up: Argus Lowers Rate Forecast This week features some new housing data and the ongoing flow of earnings reports, with some big names ready to report. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%, the S&P 500 was up 1.5%, and the Nasdaq gained 2.6%. Year to date, the DJIA is up 5%, while the S&P and the Nasdaq have both gained 4%. On Tuesday, Arista Networks and Medtronic will report earnings; on Wednesday, Analog Devices and Carvana; on Thursday, Walmart, Alibaba, and Booking Holdings; and on Friday, NatWest and United States Cellular. Some 383 of the S&P 500 companies have reported for last quarter, and earnings so far show a strong 15% growth rate from the prior-year quarter. That compares to 9% growth in 3Q. Communication Services, up 32%, and Financial, up 30%, are the best-performing sectors, while Energy is doing the worst, down 30%, according to Refinitiv. On the economic calendar, Wednesday brings updates on Housing Starts and Building Permits, and the Minutes of the Fed's January rate meeting. On Friday, Existing Home Sales hit the tape. For the Economic Call of the Week, Argus Chief Economist Chris Graja, CFA, has selected Housing Starts, which he expects to decline 9% from a year ago, to 1.25 million seasonally-adjusted for January. This is above the consensus call for a decline of 1.4 million, and lower than the stronger-than-expected 1.5 million in December. Chris offers the following thoughts. 'The December pace might have received a boost from builders' post-election optimism. However, our near-term concern is that the jump in mortgage rates since September will make builders more cautious. Still, we remain upbeat on the prospects for homebuilders because demographics and underbuilding have created a big shortage of affordable housing. With existing homeowners handcuffed to their low, locked-in mortgages, Millennials and other buyers are turning to the new-home market. Builders are being pragmatic and offering incentives and mortgage-rate buy-downs, which are helping them to sell homes.' Last week, mortgage rates dipped 2 basis points (bps), with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now at 6.87%, according to FreddieMac. Gas prices rose five cents to average $3.13 per gallon for regular gas. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator is forecasting for 1Q and calls for expansion of 2.3%. The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast is at 2.81% for CPI in February. The next Fed rate decision is on March 19, with odds at just 2.5% that there will be a rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch rate tool. After that, the next meeting is in early May, with odds at just 20% for a cut. Given recent data and commentary from Federal Reserve officials, we have lowered our expectations for 2025 to two rates cuts, from three. We expect both cuts will be in the back half of the year, and both by 25 bps.

Republic Services is one of the largest domestic providers of nonhazardous waste services, as measured by revenue. The company serves 14 million customers and has operations in 41 states. The company was founded in 1996 and is based in Phoenix. Republic Services has approximately 40,000 employees. The shares are a component of the S&P 500.

Republic Services is the second-largest integrated provider of traditional solid waste services in the United States, operating roughly 207 active landfills and 246 transfer stations. The company serves residential, commercial, and industrial end markets. It also runs a sizable recycling operation in North America.

Republic Services is the second-largest integrated provider of traditional solid waste services in the United States, operating roughly 207 active landfills and 246 transfer stations. The company serves residential, commercial, and industrial end markets. It also runs a sizable recycling operation in North America.