On Friday, we expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to report that U.S employment is growing, albeit amid numerous concerns. Our forecast is for March nonfarm payrolls to rise by 125,000, which would be down from February's report of 151,000 new jobs and the three-month average of 200,000. The March consensus has been fluctuating between 125k and 130k. We expect the unemployment rate in March to tick up to 4.2%, which is still healthy and in line with consensus. We expect that average hours worked to remain at 34.1 hours and growth in average hourly earnings to remain at 4.0%. The median unemployment forecast from Fed governors and bank presidents in the Summary of Economic Projections is now 4.4% for 2025 (up from 4.3% at the time of the December Fed meeting). The 2026 and 2027 estimates are still 4.3%; the long-term estimate is still at 4.2%. Based on the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta jobs calculator, nonfarm payrolls would need to average approximately 113,000 a month to hold the unemployment rate at 4.1% over the next 12 months. If the unemployment rate rises to 4.4% over the next 12 months, consistent with the new estimate from Fed officials, monthly payrolls would average approximately 71,500, according to the Atlanta Fed calculator. Any meaningful uptick in layoffs would start to appear in initial jobless claims, which are reported every Thursday. The current four-week average of 224,000 is well below the 300,000 that might be a recession warning. With many job cuts announced by the federal government and the potential for additional job losses by government contractors and institutions that may lose funding, we will take a close look at our forecasts if the four-week average stays above 250,000 for a few weeks. The services sector is critical to our forecast for continuing GDP growth. Will be watching private service-providing payrolls on Friday as well as the ISM services indices, which will be reported on Thursday.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Costco operates a membership-based, no-frills retail model, predicated on offering a select product assortment in bulk quantities at bargain prices. The firm avoids maintaining costly product displays by keeping inventory on pallets and limits distribution expenses by storing its inventory at point of sale in the warehouse. Given Costco’s frugal cost structure, the firm is able to price its merchandise below competing retailers, driving high sales volume per warehouse and allowing the retailer to generate strong profits on thin margins. Costco operates over 600 warehouses in the United States and boasts over 60% market share in the domestic warehouse club industry. Internationally, Costco operates another 280 warehouses, primarily in markets such as Canada, Mexico, Japan, and the UK.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is the world's largest dedicated chip foundry, with over 60% market share. TSMC was founded in 1987 as a joint venture of Philips, the government of Taiwan, and private investors. It went public as an ADR in the US in 1997. TSMC's scale and high-quality technology allow the firm to generate solid operating margins, even in the highly competitive foundry business. Furthermore, the shift to the fabless business model has created tailwinds for TSMC. The foundry leader has an illustrious customer base, including Apple, AMD, and Nvidia, that looks to apply cutting-edge process technologies to its semiconductor designs. TSMC employs more than 73,000 people.