The volume of weekly insider transactions reported by Vickers Stock Research has started to grow a bit as earnings season progresses. As of last week, over 60% of the companies in the S&P 500 had reported results. Turning to insider-sentiment data, a plateau appears to be forming while the news flow remains volatile. Tuning first to the Total One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio from Vickers, the current reading is neutral at 5.73, but just below the bearish zone that starts at 6.00. Two weeks ago, the reading was a more-worrisome 10.25. The bouncy one-week data has left the broader Total Eight-Week Sell/Buy Ratio at 5.37 and in a neutral range that runs from 2.00 to 6.00; the reading has sported a 'five handle' since November. On an exchange basis, the current NYSE one-week ratio is 4.57 and has been moving from neutral to slightly bearish for over a month, resulting in a softly improving eight-week reading (currently neutral at 4.37). The Nasdaq has been the problem child of late, but the current one-week reading is 6.53 and has been stable for two weeks after hitting a troubling 14.06 two weeks ago and 15.57 two weeks before that. The eight-week reading currently at 6.50 and has been flat for three weeks. End of day, current insider sentiment is not worrisome but neither is it optimistic. More-meaningful signals may well develop as earnings season ends and insider-transaction volume returns to normal levels. This week, analysts at Vickers highlighted insiders transactions of interest at Primis Financial Corp. (NGM: FRST) and Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE: EL).

Peloton Interactive calls itself the largest interactive fitness community in the world, based on its 'community' of over 3.1 million members. As a technology company, Peloton seeks to mesh the physical and digital worlds to create an immersive and connected fitness experience. Peloton earns revenue from selling fitness equipment and subscription services.

Peloton Interactive calls itself the largest interactive fitness community in the world, based on its 'community' of over 3.1 million members. As a technology company, Peloton seeks to mesh the physical and digital worlds to create an immersive and connected fitness experience. Peloton earns revenue from selling fitness equipment and subscription services.

Monday Tee Up: Nvidia and Walmart Two giants report earnings this week: Nvidia, providing a benchmark for the growth of AI, and Walmart, shining light on the health of the consumer. The economic calendar is light, though some stats will come in on housing. Meanwhile, Wall Street will continue to evaluate if the Fed is likely to cut interest rates further at their next (and final for 2024) policy meeting next month. Chairman Powell made comments last week suggesting that the Fed is in no hurry to act. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the week with a decline of 1.2%, the S&P 500 was lower by 2.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 3.2%. For the year, the Dow is higher by 15%, the S&P is up 23%, and the Nasdaq has popped 24%. The earnings calendar is packed again this week. On Tuesday, Walmart, Lowe's, Medtronic, Spotify, Tyson Foods, and AstraZeneca are among the companies that report. On Wednesday, Nvidia, Snowflake, Palo Alto Networks, Target, TJX, and William-Sonoma. On Thursday, Intuit, Warner Music, The Gap, BJ's, and Deere. So far, 460 of the S&P 500 companies have reported and earnings are coming in 8.8% higher than in the prior-year quarter. Communication Services, up 26%, and Technology, up 17%, are leading. Energy, down 26%, is underperforming. Based on our outlook for continued economic growth through 2025, we have raised our 2025 and 2026 forecasts for S&P 500 earnings from continuing operations. For 2025, we are raising our forecast to $276, from $265. Whereas our prior forecast assumed high-single-digit growth, our revised forecast models full-year EPS growth of 11.8%. For 2026, we are raising our forecast to $307 from a preliminary outlook in the $285 range. Whereas our prior forecast assumed high-single-digit growth, our revised forecast models full-year EPS growth of 11.2%. On the economic calendar, the National Association of Homebuilders Index for November will be released on Monday. Argus' Chief Economist Chris Graja, CFA, is watching the expectations component to see if builders remain optimistic about prospects for the next six months, even as Treasury and mortgage rates have risen. Chris says the traffic component may help us to see how prospective buyers are reacting to the jump in rates. On Tuesday, Housing Starts for October will be released, with a consensus expectation for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.34 million. Argus' estimate is 1.29 million. This is an important indicator because it shows whether builders are confident in the economy, future housing conditions, and their ability to move inventory. Affordability remains a big challenge for many buyers. Inflation data from last week was hotter than expected. CPI printed at 2.6% for October, up from 2.4% in September. Core CPI was 3.3%, unchanged from September. Wholesale price indicator PPI also ticked higher. Mortgage rates stayed steady and are at 6.78% for the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Gas prices fell two cents, to $3.10 per gallon for the average price of regular gas. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator is forecasting for 3Q and calls for expansion of 2.5%. The Cleveland Fed CPINow indicator for November is at 2.71%. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve will make its last interest-rate decision of the year on December 18. Odds are at 62% that there will be another 25 basis-point (bps) rate cut at that meeting (according to the CME FedWatch tool). We agree and also expect three more cuts in 2025, all by 25 bps.