The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT); TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX); GE HealthCare Technologies Inc (GEHC); Campbell Soup Co. (CPB) and the Focus List deletions are Dominos Pizza Inc (DPZ); Labcorp Holdings Inc. (LH); Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ); Oracle Corp. (ORCL).

Mega-cap stocks came back on Tuesday, at least for a day, while small- and mid-cap issues took the day off. It was definitely a risk-on day, as Information Technology (XLK) popped 2%, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Communications Services (XLY) added 1%, and Financials rose 0.7%. Energy (XLE) was smacked, off 2.6% as WTI fell over 4% after its recent run. The S&P 500 gained 1% and is less than 10 points away from another 2024 all-time closing high. The Nasdaq rose 1.5%, while the Nasdaq 100 was up 1.6%. But as if often the case, looking under the hood tells the real story. Technology was led by a few major semiconductors, including NVDA (+4%) and AVGO (+3%). NVDA has been tracing out a bullish continuous inverse head-and-shoulders, while AVGO has been forming a complex double bottom since the middle of June. Both are very close to completing these patterns and possibly breaking out to all-time highs. One concern about jumping back on the semi train is that we are not seeing other stocks completing bases and many are nowhere near highs. That can be rectified, but the strongest industry moves occur when the majority of stocks are participating. The other area of IT that showed strength was software, including some cloud stocks. ORCL (+2.6%) has broken out to all-time highs, while CRM (+2.5%) has rallied nicely over the past month and is nearing its March 2024 all-time high. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) rose over 2% and recently broke to all-time highs after tracing out a massive base that started in late 2021. The Amplify Cybersecurity ETF (HACK) has also hit all-time highs. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

Oracle Corp. is one of the world's largest independent enterprise software companies, with annual revenues over $53 billion. Its software products include database, middleware, application, and cloud-based software designed for general business purposes and for specific industries. In addition, Oracle provides product upgrades, maintenance releases, and patches through license update agreements, as well as extensive product support. Oracle also provides server hardware. It expanded its presence in the healthcare market with the Cerner acquisition in 2022. The company has about 160,000 employees. About 37% of revenue comes from outside the Americas region.

September 10 was very reminiscent of the mega-cap market from parts of 2023 and 2024, when just a handful of monster stocks dragged the major indices higher, while most other stocks waded in choppy water. While the biggest sector winner was Real Estate (XLRE), with a 1.8% gain, Information Technology (IT) was second, rising 1.5%, and Consumer Discretionary was third, adding 1.2%. Within IT, software rose 1.9% on the back of Oracle's 11% surge following better-than-expected quarterly results. Semiconductors also got a little mojo back, rising a bit more than 3% as Broadcom popped 5.3% and Advanced Micro added 3.4%. Autos led in discretionary as Tesla ripped 4.6% while the next 10 autos by market cap all fell. On the flipside, Financial gave up 1%, led by a 5.2% drubbing in the largest bank, JP Morgan. Energy was the weakest sector, as crude oil fell another 3.5% to $66.30/barrel and the lowest close for WTI since late 2021. Exxon led Energy to the downside, falling 3.6%. While the S&P 500 gained 0.5%, the Nasdaq rose 0.8%, Nasdaq 100 was up 0.9%, small- and mid-caps did little, and NYSE breadth was flat. Bonds continue to rally as the 10-year yield fell to 3.65%, the lowest level since June 2023; the five-year dropped to 3.43%, its lowest since May 2023; while the two-year is down to 3.59%, the lowest since March 2023. While it's happening slowly, the yield is normalizing - in other words, it is 'un-inverting' for the first time in over two years. The two-, five-, and 10-year yield charts all look like they are tracing out multi-year topping formations, but we don't want rates to fall too far.