Novartis develops and manufactures innovative drugs. Key areas of drug development include oncology, rare diseases, neuroscience, immunology, respiratory, cardio-metabolic, and established medicines. The company sells its products globally, with the United States comprising close to one third of total revenue.

Novartis develops and manufactures innovative drugs. Key areas of drug development include oncology, rare diseases, neuroscience, immunology, respiratory, cardio-metabolic, and established medicines. The company sells its products globally, with the United States comprising close to one third of total revenue.

With the current stock turmoil, global stocks, and especially stocks that pay dividends, are a potential option for investors. While the S&P 500 has fallen 12% year to date, the EAFE Index of large- and mid-cap stocks based in countries other than the U.S. and Canada has gained 1%. That's quite a change from the recent record. Over the past five years, the S&P 500 has advanced 109% compared to a 50% gain in EAFE. But the underperformance has given global stocks a valuation advantage, particularly in the area of dividends. Consider that the EAFE dividend yield of 3.0% is roughly 175 basis points higher than the comparable S&P 500 dividend yield. We think global dividend stocks continue to offer opportunity, particularly given the endless speculation over the direction of interest rates in the U.S., which has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors. These investors have endured recent wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity groups such as utilities, REITs and MLPs. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to volatile U.S interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also a number of positives in this asset class for U.S. investors, including a wide selection of companies that pay dividends, robust industry diversification, and, as we have mentioned, higher yields and lower valuations. Argus has recently boosted its global coverage, and recommends the following international dividend stocks, each of which has at least a long-term BUY rating from an Argus analyst. This list of approximately 25-30 companies offers exposure to eight of the 11 major industrial sectors, and includes companies from 10 countries.

Bear Market and Recession Worries Grow The Trump administration has started a trade war -- and this week it likely will escalate, assuming countries that have been slapped with tariffs retaliate by imposing tariffs of their own. Many of these countries also are likely to create new alliances and rebuild their trade partnerships in order to bypass the U.S. The implementation of tariffs, and the associated tax and inflation concerns, has created a new and uncertain economic landscape that includes the possibility of a bear market and/or a recession. Earnings season begins soon, and guidance from corporations about the impact of the tariffs will loom large. Last week was the worst week for stocks since the days of COVID-19. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 8%, the S&P 500 shed 9%, and the Nasdaq fell into correction territory in two days, dropping 10%. Year to date, the DJIA has declined 10%, the S&P 500 is down 14%, and the Nasdaq has lost 19%. On the economic calendar, inflation news will come with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday. The consensus calls for CPI to rise 2.6% on a year-over-year basis and for PPI to rise 3.3%. We agree with the 2.6% CPI call, but our PPI forecast is 3.2% Argus Chief Economist Chris Graja, CFA, offered the following thoughts. 'The news on CPI and PPI will be less important than normal because of last week's announcement that raised U.S. tariffs to their highest level since the early 1900s. The Budget Lab at Yale University estimates that all tariffs implemented in 2025 will raise the consumer price level by 2.3% 'in the short run.' If we add 2.3 percentage points to the 2.5% PCE inflation estimate the Fed provided in December, inflation could rise to about 4.5%-5.0%.' Chris' Call of the Week, however, is the OFR Financial Stress Index, which he expects to remain near, or below, normal levels. The Office of Financial Research, within the U.S. Treasury Department, maintains the OFR Financial Stress Index. It is a daily snapshot (released with a two-day lag) of market-based risk in global financial markets and is constructed from 33 financial market variables, including interest-rate spreads, equity valuation, and volatility. It is currently signaling below-average financial market stress. We have also discussed the Financial Stress Index from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, which is released each Thursday. We watch these indicators closely. A big increase in financial stress could tip a slowing economy into a recession. Earnings season kicks off this week, and the timing allows for feedback from CEOs and CFOs on how tariffs and a possible recession will impact their businesses. On Wednesday, Delta Air Lines reports. On Friday, big banks including J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock step up to the plate. Last week, the jobs report was mixed. But the data from March might be moot if the economy shifts significantly due to the tariffs. That said, any impact probably won't be felt for a few months. Nonfarm Payrolls surprised on the upside at 228,000 in March, up from February's 151,000 new jobs. The Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.2%. Elsewhere, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow measure forecasts a decline of 2.8% for 1Q, signally contraction. This latest read doesn't take into account the tariffs announced at the end of last week. As of mid-February, it had signaled expansion of 2.3%. The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast forecasts calls for a CPI reading of 2.6% in April. Mortgage rates edged down 1 basis point (bps) last week, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now at 6.64%, according to FreddieMac. Gas prices rose four cents to an average of $3.16 per gallon for regular gas. Looking ahead, the next Fed's rate decision is on May 7, with odds for a rate cut at 33%, according to the CME FedWatch rate tool. After that, the next meeting is on June 18, when odds jump to 94% for a cut.