When global economic conditions become uncertain or unpredictable, investors often flock to gold. According to Trading Economics, the yellow metal is currently trading above $3,200 per ounce, up 25% for the year and near the high end of its five-year range of $1,660-$3,325. Essentially, gold has been on an upward arc since the start of the pandemic. During the first phase of the unanticipated global health crisis, the spot price for an ounce of gold jumped 33% in six months and broke through the $2,000 level. Gold also spiked in 2022 due to the war in Ukraine. Over the past year, gold has jumped another 40%, driven in part by global uncertainty over tariffs and trade wars. The current price of gold reflects the perceived safety of hard assets amid the global conflicts, as well as expectations for lower U.S. interest rates, which tend to weaken the dollar (the currency in which gold is priced). The outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts also helps gold, as lower rates reduce the risk for a global economic recession and thus a potential decline in gold purchased for jewelry. Looking ahead, our forecast trading range for gold in 2025 is $2,500-$3,500 and our average price forecast for the year is $3,000. This compares to average gold prices of $2,450 in 2024, $1,960 in 2023, $1,873 in 2022, $1,806 in 2021, $1781 in 2020, $1,400 in 2019, $1,265 in 2018, $1,277 in 2017, $1,258 in 2016, and $1,155 in 2015. As long as geopolitics are flaring and the global economy is wobbling, gold is likely to remain at elevated levels.

Founded in 1921, Denver-based Newmont is the world's largest gold-mining company, with assets and operations in North America, South America, Australia/New Zealand, and Africa. While approximately 88% of its revenues come from gold, the company is also a major producer of copper. The company has about 22,000 employees. It is the only gold producer in the S&P 500.

The stock market continues to march higher, as bullish headlines are coming fast and furious. In just 24 trade days, the S&P 500 (SPX) has tacked on 18%, the Nasdaq has spiked 24.5%, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has surged 24%. Those are the best 24-day returns for the indices since (you guessed it) the pandemic. Before that was when the indices were emerging from the 2008/2009 financial crisis. So if you consider a 20% move a bull market, two of the three listed above met the standard definition. We think a 24-day move is not enough to determine if an index is in a bull or bear market, but we can hold forth about that another day. (And, no, we don't have our own definition.) Maybe just as impressive, the 16-day move since the April 21 closing low has the SPX up 14%, the Nasdaq up 20%, and the QQQ up 19%. For the SPX and the Nasdaq, that's the best 16-day move since COVID-19, and before that, since April 2009. For the QQQ, it is the greatest move since April 2020 and, before that, since October 2002, which was the first rally of the new bull market that ran until 2007. The current rally has been so fast that we are seeing improvement in our weekly charts. Both the 21- and 50-week exponential moving averages (EMAs) have turned higher; the four-week has crossed above the 40-week EMA (after losing it in mid-March); the SPX has overtaken its 20-week or middle Bollinger Band (BB), adding more confidence to the initial buy signal when the index fell below and then recaptured the lower BB; the 14-week relative strength index (RSI) has jumped above 50% after cycling into oversold territory; and the RSI is close to breaking its downtrend going back to its March 2024 peak.

Founded in 1921, Denver-based Newmont is the world's largest gold-mining company, with assets and operations in North America, South America, Australia/New Zealand, and Africa. While approximately 88% of its revenues come from gold, the company is also a major producer of copper. The company has about 21,700 employees. It is the only gold producer in the S&P 500.