Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, has surveyed the Argus analyst team about the impact of tariffs on companies in the Argus Universe of Coverage. The tariff environment is dynamic, to say the least. The White House has levied tariffs or threatened to levy tariffs, but often paused, postponed, or withdrawn pledged tariffs. Most recently, China and the U.S. agreed to reduce baseline tariffs to 10% for 90 days (30% in the U.S. reflecting a 20% fentanyl penalty). More than the tariffs themselves, the lack of a finished tariff infrastructure complicates business planning, staffing decisions, and capital investment. Within this dynamic environment, companies are focused on taking actions in areas they can control and planning proactively for a range of tariff scenarios. Companies are anticipating both direct and indirect tariff impacts. Direct impacts would include higher costs for imported finished goods and components, foregone sales as a result of reciprocal tariffs in other nations, and other factors. For example, a manufacturing company would face direct impacts as it pays higher prices for imported parts. Indirect impacts would include a slowing in business related to a broad softening in the economy. All companies likely will feel indirect impacts. A utility, for example, could begin to see a slowing in industrial and commercial kilowatt-hour sales, particularly in niches such as warehousing, trucking and rail, and other freight-related functions. We asked Argus analysts to survey their companies for their commentary on direct and indirect tariff impacts, as well as actions these companies are taking to mitigate the challenging trade environment. Nearly every company in Argus analyst coverage has issued commentary regarding tariffs, much as (five years ago) nearly every company in coverage had something to say about the then-developing COVID-19 pandemic. Below we offer a sampling of company responses to the unfolding tariff environment across a range of sectors and industries. We intend to update our survey on a regular basis at least until the tariff environment, in whatever shape or form, becomes a stable part of the U.S. economy.

Intuitive Surgical develops, produces, and markets a robotic system for assisting minimally invasive surgery. It also provides the instrumentation, disposable accessories, and warranty services for the system. The company has placed more than 9,500 da Vinci systems in hospitals worldwide, with more than 5,500 installations in the US and a growing number in emerging markets.

Intuitive Surgical designs, manufactures, and markets da Vinci robotic surgical systems and related instruments and accessories in the U.S. and internationally. The da Vinci system enables surgeons to perform a wide range of surgical procedures with shorter recovery periods and higher patient comfort. ISRG was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.

Stocks are lower at midday on signs that the U.S. economy is slowing faster than expected. For 1Q, consumers and businesses scooped up imports tilting the trade balance and lowering GDP. We got a big hint that this was coming in the Trade Deficit in Goods numbers out yesterday proving the rush to buy imports before expected price increases due to tariffs. The advance estimate for GDP showed a decline of 0.3%, the first contraction in 3 years. Key inflation data out this morning shows the pace of inflation is slowing. Headline PCE slowed to 2.3% in March versus 2.7% the month before. Core PCE decelerated to 2.6% compared to 3.0%. On a month-by-month basis, both measures came in at 0.0% changed. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is 4.16%. Oil is at $60 per barrel.