The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) reversed to the downside on Thursday and has yet to exceed its March 3 closing high of $92.57. We thought the ETF was in a minor five-wave advance, with the next resistance just below $94. That is the location of the prior high on December 6 and is an important 61.8% retracement of the decline from mid-September 2024 until early January 2025. However, a failure from here would look more like a three-wave ABC advance, and suggests the possibility of a pullback. Key support for TLT is in the $90 region. The COT data is all over the place: bullish for the two-, and five-year Treasury, slightly bullish for the 10-year, and bearish for the 30-year. Seasonality has turned bearish this month and stays that way until the end of April. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading at $68.25/barrel and is again attempting to bounce from the bottom of its multi-year trading range in the $64 to $66 region. In addition, WTI looks like it finally might break its downtrend and see some decent upside. That said, breaking below the $64 to $66 range could cause a very sharp move lower as there are probably sell stops right under this key support. On the upside, the bearish trendline off the peak since mid-January is just above $68, the declining 200-day average is at $71.50, and chart resistance sits in the mid- to high-$70s. The COT data has really caught our eye and has turned bullish. The last few times this occurred, WTI rallied $10 to $20/barrel. Seasonality is bullish and stays that way until September. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks rode a roller coaster on Tuesday as the risk-off trade continues. While the major indices all fell, they cut their intraday losses significantly. The S&P 500 (SPX) gave back 0.5% -- but was down as much as 1.3% in the morning. The Nasdaq fell 1.4%, recovering from a 2.2% draw-down earlier in the session, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) dropped 1.2% after being down 2%. The small-cap and mid-cap indices did little and market breadth was actually slightly positive on the day. Bitcoin was the big loser, plunging 4% and breaking below a trading range that has been in place for three months. Still, it did bounce after hitting its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $86,000. If we see downside follow-through, things could get ugly as the size of the recent range was $19,000. Communication Services (XLC) fell 1.5%, led by weakness in the trillion-dollar market-cap stocks GOOGL (-2%) and META (-1.6%). Information Technology (XLK) gave back 1.3% as semiconductors fell 2.6%. NVDA declined almost 3%, while AVGO dipped 2.6%. Sector strength was seen in defensive Consumer Staples (+1.4%) and Healthcare (+0.9%), in addition to Real Estate (+1.1%) and Materials (+0.8%). The SPX did bounce off its lower 20-day price channel, the weekly middle price channel, and the important 21-week EMA. The index closed slightly below its middle weekly Bollinger Band at 5,966 and additional downside follow-through will imply at least a test of the lower band at 5,765. Chart support from the recent low is at 5,773 and a test of the last breakout area would be down at 5,650. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

Bloom Energy designs, manufactures, sells, and installs solid-oxide fuel cell systems ("Energy Servers") for on-site power generation. Bloom Energy Servers are fuel-flexible and can use natural gas, biogas, and hydrogen to create 24/7 electricity for stationary applications. In 2021, the company announced plans to leverage its technology and enter the electrolyzer market. Bloom primarily sells its systems in the United States and internationally.