Despite bursts of outperformance, small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID) have underperformed large-caps year to date -- as they have over the past five years. But they may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the trade and tariff debate, or fallout from unrest in the Middle East, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, issues in China, or other geopolitical developments. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. Finally, there are long stretches in the record books when SMID stocks have outperformed large-caps. SMID stocks can be risky, but despite those risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 20% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks.

Based in Columbus, Ohio, Huntington is a regional bank providing a range of retail and commercial banking, residential mortgage lending, and asset management services. The company has $201 billion in assets and branch offices in Ohio, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

Monday Tee Up: Heavy News & Data Week This will be one of the busiest weeks in 2025. Wall Street will take in a Fed meeting, new inflation and GDP data, and a mountain of corporate earnings, including many of the Magnificent 7. The United States looks to have a new Treasury Secretary and President Trump will continue teeing up new fiscal policies. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.2%, the S&P 500 rose 1.7%, and the Nasdaq popped 1.6%. So far in 2025, all three indices are up between 3% and 4%. The earnings calendar is packed. On Monday, AT&T; on Tuesday, Boeing and Lockheed Martin; on Wednesday, Tesla, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms; on Thursday, Apple, Visa, and Mastercard; and on Friday, Exxon-Mobil, and Colgate-Palmolive. Seventy-eight of the S&P 500 companies have reported for last quarter. That is only 16%. Earnings so far for 4Q are showing 10% growth from the prior-year quarter. That compares to a 9% growth rate in 3Q. Financial is the sector with the most companies having reported so far and the growth rate in these early weeks of earnings season is a whopping 28%, according to Refinitiv. We raised our 2025 and 2026 forecasts for S&P 500 EPS growth. For 2025, we now forecast 12%, up from our prior forecast of 7%-9%. For 2026, we now estimate 11%, up our prior forecast of 7%-9%. On the economic calendar, the Federal Reserve makes its next interest rate decision on Wednesday. No one expects a rate change. However, as usual, Chairman Powell's comments will be scrutinized. Other releases include New Home Sales on Monday; Durable-Goods Orders and the Case-Shiller Home Price Index on Tuesday; GDP on Thursday; and the Personal Consumer Expenditures Index on Friday. Argus Chief Economist Chris Graja notes that Scott Bessent's likely confirmation this week as Treasury Secretary may be the event with the most enduring importance. Mr. Bessent's years as a global macro hedge fund manager make him an expert in identifying market conditions and economic policies, good skills for a Treasury Secretary. Mr. Bessent got his start as an intern for Jim Rogers, who many long-time Argus clients will remember from his keynote presentation at an Argus conference in 2007. Last week, mortgage rates dipped back below 7%, falling eight basis points (bps), with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now at 6.96%, according to FreddieMac. Gas prices jumped 11 cents to an average of $3.11 per gallon for regular gas. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator is forecasting for 4Q and calls for expansion of 3.0%. The Cleveland Fed CPINow indicator is forecasting for January and is at 2.84%, up from 2.79% last week. After this week's Federal Reserve rate decision, the next rate decision is on March 19, with odds at 28% for a rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch rate tool. After that, the next meeting is in early May.

Based in Columbus, Ohio, Huntington is a regional bank providing a range of retail and commercial banking, residential mortgage lending, and asset management services. The company has $201 billion in assets and branch offices in Ohio, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.