Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, has surveyed the Argus analyst team about the impact of tariffs on companies in the Argus Universe of Coverage. The tariff environment is dynamic, to say the least. The White House has levied tariffs or threatened to levy tariffs, but often paused, postponed, or withdrawn pledged tariffs. Most recently, China and the U.S. agreed to reduce baseline tariffs to 10% for 90 days (30% in the U.S. reflecting a 20% fentanyl penalty). More than the tariffs themselves, the lack of a finished tariff infrastructure complicates business planning, staffing decisions, and capital investment. Within this dynamic environment, companies are focused on taking actions in areas they can control and planning proactively for a range of tariff scenarios. Companies are anticipating both direct and indirect tariff impacts. Direct impacts would include higher costs for imported finished goods and components, foregone sales as a result of reciprocal tariffs in other nations, and other factors. For example, a manufacturing company would face direct impacts as it pays higher prices for imported parts. Indirect impacts would include a slowing in business related to a broad softening in the economy. All companies likely will feel indirect impacts. A utility, for example, could begin to see a slowing in industrial and commercial kilowatt-hour sales, particularly in niches such as warehousing, trucking and rail, and other freight-related functions. We asked Argus analysts to survey their companies for their commentary on direct and indirect tariff impacts, as well as actions these companies are taking to mitigate the challenging trade environment. Nearly every company in Argus analyst coverage has issued commentary regarding tariffs, much as (five years ago) nearly every company in coverage had something to say about the then-developing COVID-19 pandemic. Below we offer a sampling of company responses to the unfolding tariff environment across a range of sectors and industries. We intend to update our survey on a regular basis at least until the tariff environment, in whatever shape or form, becomes a stable part of the U.S. economy.

Since April 21 (or since the secondary market low and eight days after "the" closing low of the correction in the major indices), stocks have enjoyed a massive and consistent tailwind. The S&P 500 (SPX) has risen in 16 out of 19 trade days, and the three daily losses were inconsequential. Since the April 8 bottom, the SPX has soared 19.6% in 27 days, the Nasdaq has surged 26%, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has popped 25%. That performance is the best since, and very reminiscent of, the pandemic. As well, those 27-day returns (ex. the pandemic) are the best since April 2009, when stocks were coming out of the financial crisis. With this kind of steady and persistent rally pushing the SPX to within 3% of its February 19 all-time high, the Nasdaq to within 5% of its December 16 all-time high, and the QQQ to within 3.3% of its February 19 all-time high, one would expect the investment masses to be pushing the "very bullish" sentiment button. Indeed, they almost always have in the past, as sentiment follows price. But that is not the case with this rally, although some indicators are finally pushing to extreme bullish levels. The five-day CBOE equity-only put/call (PC) ratio has dropped to 0.48 from 0.73 on April 8, the lowest and most-overheated P/C since July 2023, just before the July through August pullback. Hedge fund exposure and the NAAIM Exposure Index have not reached extreme levels, consumer confidence has hit its lowest level since the pandemic, and, within the consumer-sentiment survey, more participants believe stocks will move lower. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

The dollar, the world's dominant currency, has been in hot demand since the start of the pandemic. On a worldwide trade-weighted basis, the greenback is up 11% since January 2020; compared to a basket of emerging market currencies, it has surged 14%. Indeed, when global uncertainty increases, investor seek a safe haven for assets. That trend has started to unwind a bit in 2025. Year-to-date, the dollar has given back 3% against the worldwide index and 5% compared to an index of advanced economy currencies. Some of the slide can be linked to the economic uncertainty caused by President Trump's trade and tariff policies, though reasons also include the swelling U.S. federal debt, which is not a new trend. Sovereign wealth funds are thus rethinking their commitment to U.S. assets as the cost of doing business in America increases and the balance sheet strains. But we would hesitate to term the dollar at risk of losing its status as the global currency of choice. Even with the pullback this year, the dollar is 18% above its 20-year average value. The greenback is supported by the depth of a $27 trillion market, not to mention by the Federal Reserve and by the country's time-tested political/economic system of democratic capitalism. The alternatives (the euro, yen or yuan) have their issues as well. For several reasons, we anticipate a relatively stable trading range for the dollar over the balance of the year. For one, the dollar typically tracks GDP growth trends, and we think the U.S. economic expansion is poised to ease in coming quarters as jobs growth slows. For another, the still-elevated valuation of the greenback implies that other currencies -- and even gold or other commodities -- are possibly undervalued, and we would expect investors to bid up those values at a measured pace over time.

Fed Week The Fed meets this week and will announce a decision on interest rates. Spoiler alert: essentially no one thinks a rate cut is likely. Meanwhile, it's another peak week for corporate earnings. Companies have been weighing-in about how tariffs will impact their individual businesses. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both gained 3.0% while the Nasdaq rose 3.4%. All three indices are still negative for the year. So far in 2025, the Dow and the S&P 500 are down 3%, and the Nasdaq has lost 7%. The earnings calendar this week includes Ford, Palantir Technologies, ON Semiconductor, Tyson Foods, Mattel, and Clorox on Monday; Marriott International and Super Micro Computer on Tuesday; Walt Disney, Uber, Door Dash, and Novo Nordisk on Wednesday; and Anheuser-Busch, Warner Bros. Discover, and Cloudflare on Thursday. So far, 65% of S&P 500 companies have reported and earnings are up 13% from the prior-year quarter. That is far above the consensus that called for EPS growth of about 3%-8% and follows 17% growth in 4Q24 EPS and 9% growth in 3Q24, according to LSEG. For the current quarter, Healthcare is the leading sector, with earnings up 45%, and Energy is the bottom, down 18%. On the economic calendar, the big event is the Fed's rate decision comes on Wednesday. Odds are only at 3% for a rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch rate tool. In other economic news, the ISM Services Index will be reported on Monday and the U.S. Trade Deficit will be updated on Tuesday. The Economic Call of the Week from Argus' Chief Economist Chief Graja is the ISM Services Index. Chris expects the index for April to remain above 50, indicating continuing expansion, and offered the following thoughts. 'This indicator has massive importance because it is one of the few that focuses on the dominant sector of the U.S. economy. The 'steady Eddie' services category represents a massive 47% of GDP and may be an important line of defense against further GDP contraction as the drag from imports should moderate. Services grew 2.4% in 1Q and contributed 1.1 point of growth that offset the quarterly decline in GDP. ISM Index values above 50 indicate that the services sector is generally expanding. March's reading was 50.8. Our estimate for April is 50.2. Consensus is 50.4.' Turning to other data, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow measure forecasts 1.1% for 2Q. This follows the surprise decline of 0.3% for 1Q GDP printed last week. The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast forecasts a 2.2% rate for CPI in May, which is lower than the April rate and close to the Fed's 2.0% target. Mortgage rates ticked down by 5 basis points (bps) last week, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now at 6.76%, according to FreddieMac. Gas prices fell a penny to an average of $3.13 per gallon for regular gas. After this week, the Fed's next meeting is on June 18, with odds at 42% for a rate cut (lower than last week's odds), according to the CME FedWatch rate tool. After that, the Fed meets on July 30 and odds for a cut jump to 89%.