Our stock/bond asset-allocation model, which we call the Stock Bond Barometer, is indicating that bonds are the asset class offering the most value at the current market juncture. But barely. The model is expressed in terms of standard deviations to the mean, or sigma. The mean going back to 1960 is a modest premium for stocks, of 0.09 sigma, with a standard deviation of 1.05. In other words, stocks normally sell for a slight premium valuation. The current valuation level now is a 0.17 sigma premium for stocks, down from a 0.5 two months ago in the wake of the equity sell-off. Other valuation measures also show reasonable (if not discount) multiples for stocks. The current forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is approximately 19, the midpoint of the normal range. The current S&P 500 dividend yield of 1.2% is below the historical average of 2.9%, but the relative reading to the 10-year Treasury bond yield is 28% compared to the long-run average of 39%. Further, the gap between the S&P 500 earnings yield and the benchmark 10-year government bond yield is now 365 basis points, compared to the historical average of 400. We also look at S&P valuations in terms of sales and book value. On price/book, it is no surprise that stocks are priced at the high end of the historical range of 5-1.8, given that tech stocks, which have low capital bases, are the biggest component of the market. On price/sales, the current ratio of 3.0 is above the historical average of 1.9 but well below the 4.0 multiple at the peak of the dot-com bubble, Lastly, the ratio of the S&P 500 price to an ounce of gold is now 1.8, below the midpoint of the historical range of 1-to-3. We expect the results from our model to continue to tilt more toward stocks, as inflation settles from the 2022 peak, interest rates head lower into 2026, and corporate earnings grow at a double-digit rate. Based in part on the output from our model, our recommended asset-allocation for growth accounts is 70% growth assets and 30% fixed income

Corteva is an agricultural inputs pure play that was formed in 2019 when it was spun off from DowDuPont. The company is a leader in the development of new seed and crop protection products. Seeds generate the majority of profits with the remainder coming from crop protection products. Corteva operates globally, but around half of revenue comes from North America.

Corteva Inc., the former agricultural business of DowDuPont, has two business segments: Seeds and Crop Protection. The Seeds segment provides advanced germplasm and seeds that help farmers optimize yields. The Crop Protection segment develops and markets herbicides. Corteva has approximately 22,000 employees. The shares are a component of the S&P 500.

How is Labor Holding Up? The calendar flips to April tomorrow. That means the jobs report will be released on Friday. Meanwhile, Wall Street continues to ponder the impact of tariffs on U.S. companies. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.5%, and the Nasdaq shed 2.6year to date, the DJIA has declined 2%, the S&P 500 is down 5%, and the Nasdaq has lost 10%. On the economic calendar, the jobs report is the main event for the week. It also is the Economic Call of the Week from Argus' Chief Economist Chris Graja. Chris expects nonfarm payrolls to increase by 125,000 in March, down from February's report of 151,000 new jobs. The consensus has been fluctuating between 125k and 130k. Chris expect the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.2%, which is still healthy and close to consensus. Chris offers the following. 'There's more to the nonfarm payrolls report than the number of new jobs and the unemployment rate. Last week, we talked about using depth, duration, and diffusion to make sense of the 'uncertainty' in the economy, and to see if there are genuine, persistent, and broad-based signs of change. To that end, Friday's payrolls report also includes a set of little-known diffusion indices, and these can offer some meaningful signals. Two stand out to us: a diffusion index representing 250 private industries and another for 72 manufacturing industries. An index value of 50 indicates a balance between industries increasing and decreasing employment from the previous month. Higher index values indicate that more industries are hiring. That's a good thing. When the data is released Friday, we expect the private industry index, which was last reported at 58.4, to remain comfortably above 50. We would be concerned about the risk of recession if this broad index dipped below 50. Manufacturing is a tougher call. Last month, the reading was 54.9. The Trump tariffs are designed, in part, to boost U.S. manufacturing over the long run. But the near-term reaction to the trade policy shift has been negative.' Elsewhere, the earnings calendar is quiet this week. This is the lull before the storm, as the next earnings season starts unofficially on April 11 when several of the country's biggest banks report. Last week, inflation continued to show its sticky side. The headline Personal Consumption Expenditures Index was 2.5% in February matching January. But Core PCE rose 2.8% versus 2.6% last month. This was a higher bump than was expected. Looking at other indicators we track, we note that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts a decline of 2.8% for 1Q, signaling contraction. That is down from last week. As of mid-February, it had called for expansion of 2.3%. The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast forecasts a 2.5% rate for CPI in March, unchanged last week. Mortgage rates edged down by two basis points (bps) last week, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now at 6.65%, according to FreddieMac. Gas prices rose six cents to an average of $3.12 per gallon for regular gas. The next Fed rate decision is on May 7, with odds currently at 20% for a rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch rate tool. After that, the Fed meets on June 18, and odds jump to 83% for a cut.