How is Labor Holding Up? The calendar flips to April tomorrow. That means the jobs report will be released on Friday. Meanwhile, Wall Street continues to ponder the impact of tariffs on U.S. companies. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.5%, and the Nasdaq shed 2.6year to date, the DJIA has declined 2%, the S&P 500 is down 5%, and the Nasdaq has lost 10%. On the economic calendar, the jobs report is the main event for the week. It also is the Economic Call of the Week from Argus' Chief Economist Chris Graja. Chris expects nonfarm payrolls to increase by 125,000 in March, down from February's report of 151,000 new jobs. The consensus has been fluctuating between 125k and 130k. Chris expect the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.2%, which is still healthy and close to consensus. Chris offers the following. 'There's more to the nonfarm payrolls report than the number of new jobs and the unemployment rate. Last week, we talked about using depth, duration, and diffusion to make sense of the 'uncertainty' in the economy, and to see if there are genuine, persistent, and broad-based signs of change. To that end, Friday's payrolls report also includes a set of little-known diffusion indices, and these can offer some meaningful signals. Two stand out to us: a diffusion index representing 250 private industries and another for 72 manufacturing industries. An index value of 50 indicates a balance between industries increasing and decreasing employment from the previous month. Higher index values indicate that more industries are hiring. That's a good thing. When the data is released Friday, we expect the private industry index, which was last reported at 58.4, to remain comfortably above 50. We would be concerned about the risk of recession if this broad index dipped below 50. Manufacturing is a tougher call. Last month, the reading was 54.9. The Trump tariffs are designed, in part, to boost U.S. manufacturing over the long run. But the near-term reaction to the trade policy shift has been negative.' Elsewhere, the earnings calendar is quiet this week. This is the lull before the storm, as the next earnings season starts unofficially on April 11 when several of the country's biggest banks report. Last week, inflation continued to show its sticky side. The headline Personal Consumption Expenditures Index was 2.5% in February matching January. But Core PCE rose 2.8% versus 2.6% last month. This was a higher bump than was expected. Looking at other indicators we track, we note that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts a decline of 2.8% for 1Q, signaling contraction. That is down from last week. As of mid-February, it had called for expansion of 2.3%. The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast forecasts a 2.5% rate for CPI in March, unchanged last week. Mortgage rates edged down by two basis points (bps) last week, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now at 6.65%, according to FreddieMac. Gas prices rose six cents to an average of $3.12 per gallon for regular gas. The next Fed rate decision is on May 7, with odds currently at 20% for a rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch rate tool. After that, the Fed meets on June 18, and odds jump to 83% for a cut.

BHP is the world's largest diversified natural resources company by market capitalization, with approximately 39,000 employees, primarily in Australia and the Americas. BHP is one of the world's largest producers of major commodities, including iron ore, metallurgical and energy coal, and copper.

BHP is a global diversified miner mainly supplying iron ore and copper. The merger of BHP Limited and Billiton PLC created the present-day BHP Group. The dual-listed structure from the 2001 BHP and Billiton merger was collapsed in 2022. Major assets include Pilbara iron ore and Escondida copper. Onshore US oil and gas assets were sold in 2018 and the remaining Petroleum assets were spun off and merged with Woodside in 2022, with BHP vesting the Woodside shares it received to BHP shareholders. It purchased copper miner Oz Minerals in fiscal 2023 and is entering the potash market through the development of its Jansen project in Canada. However, due to low nickel prices, BHP placed its nickel business on care and maintenance in 2024.

BHP is a global diversified miner mainly supplying iron ore and copper. The merger of BHP Limited and Billiton PLC created the present-day BHP Group. The dual-listed structure from the 2001 BHP and Billiton merger was collapsed in 2022. Major assets include Pilbara iron ore and Escondida copper. Onshore US oil and gas assets were sold in 2018 and the remaining Petroleum assets were spun off and merged with Woodside in 2022, with BHP vesting the Woodside shares it received to BHP shareholders. It purchased copper miner Oz Minerals in fiscal 2023 and is entering the potash market through the development of its Jansen project in Canada. However, due to low nickel prices, BHP placed its nickel business on care and maintenance in 2024.