When global economic conditions become uncertain or unpredictable, investors often flock to gold. According to Trading Economics, the yellow metal is currently trading above $3,200 per ounce, up 25% for the year and near the high end of its five-year range of $1,660-$3,325. Essentially, gold has been on an upward arc since the start of the pandemic. During the first phase of the unanticipated global health crisis, the spot price for an ounce of gold jumped 33% in six months and broke through the $2,000 level. Gold also spiked in 2022 due to the war in Ukraine. Over the past year, gold has jumped another 40%, driven in part by global uncertainty over tariffs and trade wars. The current price of gold reflects the perceived safety of hard assets amid the global conflicts, as well as expectations for lower U.S. interest rates, which tend to weaken the dollar (the currency in which gold is priced). The outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts also helps gold, as lower rates reduce the risk for a global economic recession and thus a potential decline in gold purchased for jewelry. Looking ahead, our forecast trading range for gold in 2025 is $2,500-$3,500 and our average price forecast for the year is $3,000. This compares to average gold prices of $2,450 in 2024, $1,960 in 2023, $1,873 in 2022, $1,806 in 2021, $1781 in 2020, $1,400 in 2019, $1,265 in 2018, $1,277 in 2017, $1,258 in 2016, and $1,155 in 2015. As long as geopolitics are flaring and the global economy is wobbling, gold is likely to remain at elevated levels.

Founded in 1921, Denver-based Newmont is the world's largest gold-mining company, with assets and operations in North America, South America, Australia/New Zealand, and Africa. While approximately 88% of its revenues come from gold, the company is also a major producer of copper. The company has about 22,000 employees. It is the only gold producer in the S&P 500.

Based in Toronto, Barrick Gold is one of the world's largest gold miners. In 2024, the firm produced nearly 3.9 million attributable ounces of gold and about 430 million pounds of copper. At year-end 2024, Barrick had about two decades of gold reserves along with significant copper reserves. After buying Randgold in 2019 and combining its Nevada mines in a joint venture with competitor Newmont later that year, it operates mines in 19 countries in the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. The company also has growing copper exposure. Its potential Reko Diq project in Pakistan, if developed, could double copper production by the end of the decade.

Newmont is the world's largest gold miner. It bought Goldcorp in 2019, combined its Nevada mines in a joint venture with competitor Barrick later that year, and also purchased competitor Newcrest in November 2023. Its portfolio includes 17 wholly or majority owned mines and interests in two joint ventures in the Americas, Africa, Australia and Papua New Guinea. The company is expected to sell roughly 5.6 million ounces of gold in 2025 from its core mines after selling six higher-cost, smaller mines. Newmont also produces material amounts of copper, silver, zinc, and lead as byproducts. It had about two decades of gold reserves along with significant byproduct reserves at the end of December 2024.