Equity investors have a lot of balls in the air and not enough hands (or quick-enough hands) to keep up. This is certainly an extraordinary week, occurring once every four years. And this year, the election shares the headlines with a Fed interest-rate decision and ongoing quarterly earnings reports. But at least we will get a lot of uncertainty out of the way -- although it seems pretty certain that the election results will take time to sort out. Current market breadth, depending on what measures are analyzed, generally is neutral to bullish, with some potentially important weakening in certain areas. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) ran right up to its prior all-time high (ATH) from July 10, yet failed by only a few points to post an all-time high on October 29. So while the QQQ is still near ATHs, only 53% of stocks in the ETF are above their 200-day average. That's down from 75% on October 14. Generally, bad things happen when the percentage of stocks above their 200-day falls under 40%. The reading of stocks above their 50-day average has dropped to 52% from 81% on October 14. Fortunately for the QQQs, many of the top nine holdings (comprising 50% of the ETF) are above their 200-day. Looking at AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AVGO, META, AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA, and COST, the only stock under its 200-day is MSFT. So the heavyweights have paused -- but have yet to break. For the S&P 500, 71% of the stocks are above their 200-day; that's still bullish but down from 82% in late September. For the S&P 100, 75% of stocks are over their 200-day -- down from 88% in October. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

Alcoa Corp. is a global provider of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. The company is based in Pittsburgh and has approximately 13,600 employees in 17 countries. The shares are a component of the S&P 400 Midcap Index.

One of the biggest surprises in 2024 has been the spectacular move of the Utility (XLU) sector, with a 32.4% leap and a place atop the eleven S&P 500 sectors. We're pretty confident that no one saw that coming. Of course, these aren't your grandfathers' utilities, but rather 'potential' growth stocks where capital gains have taken over for high dividend yields. The conventional electricity industry has soared over 34%, multi-utilities are up 22%, and gas distribution has climbed by 17%. Some of the biggest gainers by market cap this year are NEE (+43%), SO (+37%), CEG (+133%), and VST (243%) in conventional electricity; DUK (+28%), D (+32%), and PEG (+50%) in multi-utilities; and ATO (+26%), NI (+36%), BIPC (+28%), and NFG (+29%) in gas distribution. Coming in second in the sector race, and maybe another surprise, is Financial (XLF), with a 28% gain. The big industry winner has been property & casualty insurance, spiking 38%. P&C is led by PGR (+59%), CB (+35%), and TRV, ALL and ACGL (all up over 40%). Asset managers have also had a great year, rising 33%. Winners here include BX (+34%), BLK (+26%), APO and BLK (both up over 50%), and BAM (+32%). After that comes Communication Services (XLC +27%), Industrials (XLI +23%), Information Technology (XLK +21%), Consumer Staples (XLP +17%), Materials (XLB +16%), and Real Estate and Healthcare (+14%). With broad strength like that, just throw a dart!

Talk about an undecided market. In four of the past five days, the closing range of the S&P 500 (SPX) is 13.6 points. That is two-tenths of 1% based on the price of the index. For the Nasdaq, the range in four out of five days is 14.76 points or eight one-hundredths of 1%. The Nasdaq 100's (QQQ) range has been 0.83 points or two-tenths of 1%. The Nasdaq and the QQQ tested their 21-day exponential a few times and remain perilously close to breaking that average, while the SPX has come close to the average on several occasions intraday. Third-quarter EPS season starts this week, with PEP, INFY, DAL, JPM, WFC, PGR, BLK, and BK all reporting. The big financials come at the end of the week and into next week. The next three weeks will be very heavy with earnings reports. Just prior to and just after earnings reports, companies are in a blackout period. During that time, a company cannot repurchase its stock. So in April/early May, July/early August, October/early November, and January/early February, there is an absence of demand that can create weakness in the overall market. First-quarter 2024 share buybacks on the S&P 500 were $237 billion and for the 12-months ending March 2024, buybacks were $817 billion. Currently, there is a 1% excise tax on buybacks -- and that could go up as it is an attractive cash generator for the government. We are in a seasonally weak period, with the VIX Volatility Index at 22.6% -- up from 15% on September 26. This shows that option traders are betting on increased volatility by bidding-up option prices. This is common before a presidential election. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)