* Nonfarm payrolls forecast to increase by 268,000 in June
* Unemployment rate seen unchanged at 3.6%
* Average hourly earnings expected to gain 0.3%
By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON, July 8 (Reuters) - U.S. employers likely hired the fewest workers in 14 months in June, but the jobless rate probably remained near pre-pandemic lows, underscoring labor market tightness that could encourage the Federal Reserve to deliver another 75-basis-point interest rate increase later this month.
Despite the anticipated slowdown in job growth last month, the Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday could ease fears of a recession that have mounted in recent days following a raft of tepid economic data, ranging from consumer spending to manufacturing.
While demand for labor is cooling in the interest rate-sensitive goods-producing sector of the economy, businesses in the vast services industry are scrambling for workers. There were 11.3 million job openings at the end of May, with 1.9 jobs for every unemployed person.
"It's very, very difficult to get a recession with so many job openings," said Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse in New York. "In reality, a recession, more than anything else, is a collapse in the labor market, a spike in the unemployment rate, and right now, we're not seeing anything that looks like that at all."
Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 268,000 jobs last month after rising by 390,000 in May, according to a Reuters survey of economists. That would be the smallest gain since April 2021 and just more than half of the monthly average of 488,000 jobs this year. Estimates ranged from as low as 90,000 to as high 400,000.
Still, the pace would be well above the average that prevailed before the COVID-19 crisis and would leave employment about 554,000 jobs below the pre-pandemic level.
Most industries with the exception of leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, healthcare, wholesale trade and local government education have recouped all the jobs lost during the pandemic. The unemployment rate is forecast to be unchanged at 3.6% for a fourth straight month.
The Fed wants to cool demand for labor to help bring inflation down to its 2% target.
The U.S. central bank's aggressive monetary policy posture has heightened recession worries which were amplified by modest growth in consumer spending in May as well as soft housing starts, building permits and manufacturing production.
In June, it raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, its biggest hike since 1994. Markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed, which has increased its policy rate by 150 basis points since March, to unveil another 75-basis-point hike at its meeting later this month.