It could be a dry summer for the bottom line of beer giant Constellation Brands (STZ) thanks to President Donald Trump.

Trump went through with his long-threatened tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Tuesday. Starting just after midnight, imports from Canada and Mexico will now be taxed at 25%.

This is bad news for the beer industry, as more than 80% of US beer imports are estimated to come from Mexico. Companies in the sector are now faced with a one-two punch of raising prices, which could stunt demand, and increasing production costs.

Listen: Trump tariffs may trigger stagflationary shock

No beer player arguably has more at stake in Trump's trade war than Corona and Modelo maker Constellation Brands.

For starters, Modelo beers are exclusively brewed in Mexico. The company also imports Corona beer from Mexico. Each brand has seen strong sales in the past two years, helping to offset persistently weak sales in the company's wine business.

Constellation Brands operates two breweries in Mexico, located in Nava, Coahuila, and Ciudad Obregón, Sonora. It's building a third in Veracruz.

Evercore analyst Robert Ottenstein estimates that about 99% of the company's beer is imported from Mexico.

"While we can’t speculate on the duration of the currently imposed tariffs, we continue to assess opportunities to help manage impacts to our business in the near and longer term to the extent we are able," Constellation said in a statement to Yahoo Finance.

"Additionally, we continue to work with all levels of government in both the U.S. and Mexico to ensure the perspective of our business and key stakeholders are represented and considered in policy decisions, with the hope that this situation can be resolved quickly."

Recent research from Ottenstein projects a $3.50 per-share hit to Constellation's earnings in a 25% Mexico tariff situation, without any offsets such as price increases, cost cuts, and stock buybacks. If Constellation is able to execute on some of these tariff offsets, the earnings hit could still be a lofty $2.40 a share.

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

Ottenstein is hopeful Constellation Brands won't see the worst-case profit scenario happen.

"We also note that we believe [Constellation Brands] would have the ability to have distributors help absorb some of the incremental costs, which is not contemplated in the below, nor are additional productivity programs," Ottenstein said.

Meanwhile, Constellation risks generating a lower-than-expected return on its latest capital investments should Trump's trade war go on.