Volatility 101: Should Orient Victory Travel Group (HKG:265) Shares Have Dropped 44%?

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Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. Unfortunately the Orient Victory Travel Group Company Limited (HKG:265) share price slid 44% over twelve months. That contrasts poorly with the market return of 9.1%. To make matters worse, the returns over three years have also been really disappointing (the share price is 33% lower than three years ago). The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 13% in the last three months.

Check out our latest analysis for Orient Victory Travel Group

Orient Victory Travel Group wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.

In the last twelve months, Orient Victory Travel Group increased its revenue by 25%. That's definitely a respectable growth rate. Unfortunately that wasn't good enough to stop the share price dropping 44%. This implies the market was expecting better growth. However, that's in the past now, and it's the future that matters most.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

SEHK:265 Income Statement, January 10th 2020
SEHK:265 Income Statement, January 10th 2020

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Orient Victory Travel Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

A Different Perspective

Orient Victory Travel Group shareholders are down 44% for the year, but the market itself is up 9.1%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 1.0% per year over five years. We realise that Buffett has said investors should 'buy when there is blood on the streets', but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality businesses. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.