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US Dollar Stalling at Resistance, S&P 500 at Risk of Downturn

Ilya Spivak

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar continues to stall at technical resistance while S&P 500 positioning continues to hint prices are vulnerable to a reversal downward.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices are testing falling trend line resistance at 10473, with a break higher exposing the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 10518. Near-term support is at 10420, the 23.6% retracement level. A drop beneath that aims for the 38.2% mark at 10324.

Forex_US_Dollar_Stalling_at_Resistance_SP_500_at_Risk_of_Downturn_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Stalling at Resistance, S&P 500 at Risk of Downturn
Forex_US_Dollar_Stalling_at_Resistance_SP_500_at_Risk_of_Downturn_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Stalling at Resistance, S&P 500 at Risk of Downturn

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke above resistance at 1565.60, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, exposingthe 1575.10-76.10 area marked by the 50% Fib and the index’s record high. A break above that aims for the 61.8% level at 1584.50. Negative RSI divergence continues to warn of a forthcoming reversal however. The 1565.60 level has been recast as near-term support, with a move back below that eyeing the March 18 low at 1534.90.

Forex_US_Dollar_Stalling_at_Resistance_SP_500_at_Risk_of_Downturn_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Stalling at Resistance, S&P 500 at Risk of Downturn
Forex_US_Dollar_Stalling_at_Resistance_SP_500_at_Risk_of_Downturn_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Stalling at Resistance, S&P 500 at Risk of Downturn

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing at a rising trend line set from late February (1595.41), with a break lower targeting the 23.6% Fibonacci expansionat 1586.17. Near-term resistance is at 1616.98, the March 21 high. A reversal above that aims for a longer-term falling trend line at 1637.49.

Forex_US_Dollar_Stalling_at_Resistance_SP_500_at_Risk_of_Downturn_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Stalling at Resistance, S&P 500 at Risk of Downturn
Forex_US_Dollar_Stalling_at_Resistance_SP_500_at_Risk_of_Downturn_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Stalling at Resistance, S&P 500 at Risk of Downturn

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices are pulling back from resistance at 97.67, the 123.6% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term support is at 96.55, the 100% expansion, with a break beneath that eyeing a formerly broken falling trend line at 96.08. Alternatively, a reversal above resistance aims for the 138.2% Fib at 98.36.

Forex_US_Dollar_Stalling_at_Resistance_SP_500_at_Risk_of_Downturn_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Stalling at Resistance, S&P 500 at Risk of Downturn
Forex_US_Dollar_Stalling_at_Resistance_SP_500_at_Risk_of_Downturn_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Stalling at Resistance, S&P 500 at Risk of Downturn

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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