Shareholders in Molecular Templates, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTEM) may be thrilled to learn that the analysts have just delivered a major upgrade to their near-term forecasts. The analysts greatly increased their revenue estimates, suggesting a stark improvement in business fundamentals. The stock price has risen 5.0% to US$12.29 over the past week, suggesting investors are becoming more optimistic. Whether the upgrade is enough to drive the stock price higher is yet to be seen, however.

Following the upgrade, the latest consensus from Molecular Templates' seven analysts is for revenues of US$48m in 2021, which would reflect a sizeable 154% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 42% to US$1.28. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$34m and losses of US$1.54 per share in 2021. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a sizeable increase to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated loss as the business grows towards breakeven.

Check out our latest analysis for Molecular Templates

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$17.14, perhaps suggesting that the analysts remain concerned about ongoing losses despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Molecular Templates analyst has a price target of US$22.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$13.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Molecular Templates shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Molecular Templates' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 154% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2021 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 49% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Molecular Templates is expected to grow much faster than its industry.