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(Bloomberg) -- US President-elect Donald Trump’s vow to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada — a threat that has been looming for more than a month — is finally starting to disrupt Canada’s oil industry.
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Canadian crude prices and shares of the country’s producers had largely shrugged off the danger of an energy trade war since Trump first posted about the tariffs in November. Many speculated that his friendliness to the oil industry and promises to cut US gasoline prices would prompt him to exempt energy products from the levies.
That changed Monday when Alberta Premier Danielle Smith warned that, after meeting with Trump in Florida over the weekend, she saw no reason to believe oil would be excluded from the tariffs. The comments sent an index of 43 Canadian energy companies down 1.4% Monday, even as global oil prices and US energy stocks rallied.
The tariff threat is now filtering into narrower gauges of crude prices. The price of heavy Canadian crude for delivery in the second quarter in Alberta fell to a discount of $15.75 a barrel below US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude on Tuesday, according to a trader familiar with the prices. That’s down from a $14.70 discount on Monday.
“Any trade barriers that might be imposed on this free flow of trade could have a serious negative impact on the economies and consumers on both sides of the border,” a spokesperson for oil sands producer Cenovus Energy Inc. said by email.
US refiners, especially in the Midwest, take nearly all of Canada’s crude oil exports, and all but one of the country’s export pipelines go to the US. The newly expanded Trans Mountain pipeline to Vancouver allows as much as 15% of Canada’s oil exports to be loaded onto tankers and shipped to Asia.
While Cenovus is partly shielded from the effect of the tariffs by owning production in Canada and refineries in the US, other fuelmakers in the American Midwest are are poised to struggle. In Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana and Ohio, plants process almost 70% of the Canadian crude imported into the US, Cenovus said.
“A 25% tariff on Canadian crude could increase gas prices at the pump by up to 30 cents or more per gallon,” the company said.
Still, the tariff risk isn’t fully priced into Canadian oil and gas shares yet, according to analysts at TD Cowen, who see potential downside of as much as 12% for some stocks.
“It appears that the Canadian oil and gas equities have assumed a very low probability these tariffs will be implemented,” analysts including Aaron Bilkoski and Menno Hulshof said in a report published Tuesday.