Those Who Purchased Emperor International Holdings (HKG:163) Shares A Year Ago Have A 26% Loss To Show For It

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Passive investing in an index fund is a good way to ensure your own returns roughly match the overall market. But if you buy individual stocks, you can do both better or worse than that. That downside risk was realized by Emperor International Holdings Limited (HKG:163) shareholders over the last year, as the share price declined 26%. That's disappointing when you consider the market returned 0.01%. At least the damage isn't so bad if you look at the last three years, since the stock is down 15% in that time. It's down 7.7% in the last seven days.

Check out our latest analysis for Emperor International Holdings

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Unfortunately Emperor International Holdings reported an EPS drop of 97% for the last year. The share price fall of 26% isn't as bad as the reduction in earnings per share. It may have been that the weak EPS was not as bad as some had feared. With a P/E ratio of 50.87, it's fair to say the market sees an EPS rebound on the cards.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

SEHK:163 Past and Future Earnings, January 31st 2020
SEHK:163 Past and Future Earnings, January 31st 2020

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Emperor International Holdings, it has a TSR of -22% for the last year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Emperor International Holdings shareholders are down 22% for the year (even including dividends) , but the market itself is up 0.01%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 3.0% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Emperor International Holdings (at least 1 which is significant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.