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It certainly might concern Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMTX) shareholders to see the share price down 33% in just 30 days. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been very strong. Indeed, the share price is up an impressive 192% in that time. So while it's never fun to see a share price fall, it's important to look at a longer time horizon. The more important question is whether the stock is too cheap or too expensive today. While the long term returns are impressive, we do have some sympathy for those who bought more recently, given the 52% drop, in the last year.
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
See our latest analysis for Aemetis
Aemetis isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.
For the last half decade, Aemetis can boast revenue growth at a rate of 6.8% per year. That's a fairly respectable growth rate. We'd argue this growth has been reflected in the share price which has climbed at a rate of 24% per year over in that time. It's well worth monitoring the growth trend in revenue, because if growth accelerates, that might signal an opportunity. Accelerating growth can be a sign of an inflection point - and could indicate profits lie ahead. Worth watching 100%
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
A Different Perspective
Aemetis shareholders are down 52% for the year, but the market itself is up 26%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 24% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Aemetis better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Aemetis (at least 2 which are significant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
