Optimism over the imminent deployment of a COVID-19 vaccine propelled the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 30,000 for the first time ever on Tuesday, extending a breathtaking rally that’s carried stocks deep into a bull market.
Encouraging developments in the fight against the coronavirus have sent markets on a tear, even as the coronavirus crisis deepens around the world. The Russell 2000 (RUT) index also set a new peak, and the Dow is up over 13% in November — more than 10,000 points higher than the multi-year low it breached in March, when panic over the virus’ spread cratered global markets.
The technology-heavy Nasdaq, which have been beaten down as investors rotate out of “stay at home” stalwarts benefiting from coronavirus-related lockdowns, also posted strong gains. In early dealings, Tesla (TSLA) hit a new record high, and now has a market capitalization north of $500 billion — even before it joins the S&P 500.
Investors also cheered news that President-elect Joe Biden was poised to nominate former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen — who is well regarded by Wall Street — as Treasury Secretary. Markets were also ticked higher on news that the Trump administration would formally begin the transition process, in spite of President Donald Trump’s faltering effort to challenge the vote in key swing states.
“We believe that the recent reduction in political uncertainty in the U.S., though far from complete, is another supportive factor behind the recent stock rally,” said Mark Haefele, UBS Global Wealth Management’s chief investment officer.
Although a relentless wave of new COVID-19 infections has crashed down on the global economy — driving up hospitalizations and deaths in its wake — major drugmakers have indicated that an inoculation is right around the corner.
However, AstraZeneca’s stock tumbled after one Wall Street analyst sharply questioned the efficacy of the inoculation, and raised questions about whether it would receive U.S. regulatory approval. Meanwhile, the U.S. plans to begin rolling out an antibody cocktail created by Regeneron (REGN) as early as Tuesday
“Risk bulls could be excused for being slightly disappointed with the reaction so far to the very positive Astra-Zeneca news on the vaccine,” wrote Alan Ruskin, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, in a research note on Monday.
Citing the market’s reaction to previously encouraging vaccine news, Ruskin posed a question: “Is a vaccine largely priced? The short answer is no.”
In the immediate term, Ruskin said that some market bets are “starting to struggle. However, if the vaccines fulfill their promise, their impact would dominate the real economic landscape for the next 18 months at least,” he added.
A fully inoculated public would be beneficial to beaten-down industries like travel, leisure and entertainment — all of which have been devastated by COVID-19 social distancing protocols.
Expectations for a relatively quick vaccine rollout have prospects for 2021 growth, while leading investors to unwind technology-heavy “stay at home” bets that previously bolstered key stocks like Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Zoom (ZOOM) and other names. Both the Dow (^DJI) and S&P 500 (^GSPC) notched record closing highs last week, as traders rode a wave of exuberance sparked by the vaccine news.
“These developments raise the potential for a gradual return to economic normality through 2021, and a broadening of the economic recovery,” UBS’s Haefele added.
However, the near term outlook remains clouded by the relentless scourge of more COVID-19 infections, and the inability of Washington’s warring parties to agree on stimulus. The current wave of the virus is swamping the darkest days of March and April, threatening to overshadow the holidays and drag on growth.
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4:04 p.m. ET: Vaccine optimism pushed Dow to new record above 30,000; broader market rallies
Here were the main moves in markets as of 4:04 p.m. ET:
Gold (GC=F): -$32.40 (-1.76%) to $1,805.40 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): +2.5 bps to yield 0.8820%
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3:30 p.m. ET: Signs of life in hotel industry?
How key hotels have fared in terms of foot traffic, July - October.
The COVID-19 crisis has decimated the travel and leisure industry, but the moribund industry might be showing green shoots — even before a widely anticipated vaccine hits the market.
According to data analytics firm Placer.ai, three major chains, specifically: Hyatt Regency, Comfort Inn & Suites, and Hilton Garden Inn saw visitors inch back toward 2019 levels. While its an open question whether the current coronavirus surge will derail that recovery, all three chains saw foot traffic post gains from July and October by at least 10%.
Then there’s the bad news:
With COVID making another comeback, recent weekly foot traffic numbers are turning the other way. Counts decreased week-over-week at all three chains between October 19th and November 9th, with the worst retraction occurring at Hyatt Regency locations, where foot traffic was down nearly 65% year-over-year for the week of November 9th.
10-year Treasury (^TNX): +0.015 basis points to yield 0.872
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10:45 a.m. ET: Consumer confidence takes a dip
Consumers were less optimistic in the latest month, with The Conference Board sentiment index falling to 96.1 in November, from 101.4 in the prior month. That figure was below Wall Street expectations, but can be viewed through the prism of a COVID-19 surge that keeps building on itself.
However, one bright spot was the labor market differential, which showed signs of improvement.
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9:30 a.m. ET: Stocks power higher, Dow zeroes in on record
Here were the main moves in markets as of 9:30 a.m. ET:
