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Steel Dynamics, Inc. STLD expects earnings for the fourth quarter of 2024 to be $1.26 to $1.30 per share. It reported earnings $2.05 per share for the third quarter and $2.60 for fourth-quarter 2023.
The company's steel operations are expected to see significantly lower fourth-quarter profitability than the third quarter due to lower average realized pricing, seasonally lower shipments and an unplanned outage at the company's Butler Flat Roll Division that further reduced volume by an estimated 50,000 tons. Flat-rolled steel prices have become stable and underlying steel demand in the principal steel-consuming sectors is seasonally flat, as shown by strong customer order activity. Customers are optimistic about the outlook for 2025.
Based on consistent ferrous volume and constant average realized pricing, the company's metals recycling activities are predicted to generate much higher earnings in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter.
Earnings from the company's steel fabrication operations are likely to be lower in the fourth quarter of 2024 from the prior quarter, owing to seasonally reduced shipments and a less than 5% reduction in average realized pricing. The order backlog is steady, stretching into the first half of 2025 at attractive pricing levels. Current order activity is stable, with expectations for increased volumes in 2025 as interest rates fall. Support from the U.S. infrastructure program and onshoring is expected to boost demand for steel joist and deck products, as well as flat-rolled and long-product steel.
The company repurchased $250 million, or little more than 1%, of its common shares during the fourth quarter through Dec. 10, 2024, based on ongoing confidence in its cash flow generation and earnings projections.
Shares of Steel Dynamics have lost 0.3% in the past year compared with the industry’s 26.4% decline.
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STLD’s Rank & Key Picks
STLD currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Better-ranked stocks in the basic materials space include Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS, Ingevity Corporation NGVT and CF Industries Inc. CF.
Carpenter Technology currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). CRS beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average earnings surprise being 14.1%. The company's shares have soared 161.6% in the past year. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Ingevity, a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock, beat the consensus estimate in three of the trailing four quarters. In this time frame, it has delivered an earnings surprise of roughly 95.4%, on average. The consensus estimate for NGVT’s current year earnings has increased 15.9% in the past 60 days.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF’s current-year earnings is pegged at $6.32 per share. CF, a Zacks Rank #1 stock, beat the consensus estimate in two of the last four quarters while missed twice, with the average earnings surprise being 10.3%. CF has rallied around 18.2% in the past year.