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Top-line growth continued to be excellent in the fourth quarter, on the back of long-term investments made into our capabilities and rational market conditions. Private stands out with 8 per cent currency adjusted GWP growth in the quarter, or 10 per cent if we exclude the Swedish mobility business adversely affected by low new car sales. This growth comes partly from investments into personal insurance and property, which grew by 14 per cent and 7 per cent in the quarter, respectively. However, supportive conditions in Norway and Denmark also provide a tail wind with a notable acceleration in GWP growth in Topdanmark to 11 per cent in the quarter. Private retention remains high and stable at 89 per cent, reflecting both high customer satisfaction and rational Nordic markets. To complete the picture on Private, I am pleased to be able to report that we have recently renewed two of the largest motor insurance distribution agreements in the Nordic markets, thereby confirming our strong leadership position in the region.

In the UK, we added 84,000 policies in the quarter with growth in new products, such as telematics, bike, van, and home insurance, partly offset by a disciplined approach to the broader motor product as market pricing ticked down. Overall, 2024 was an outstanding year for Hastings with underwriting profit growth of 49 per cent, accounting for almost half the 13 per cent increase at Group level.

In corporate lines, I want to focus on the 1 January 2025 renewals, which account for around 40–45 per cent of the business. Commercial achieved high-single digit rate increases, backed by particularly strong development in Norway, while retention remained high. In Industrial, a largely supportive market enabled rate increases above plan, and we took the opportunity to continue to reduce our exposure to the largest property risks. Our main reinsurance programmes were renewed successfully on 1 January, with net retention unchanged at SEK 300 million (circa EUR 25 million) per event and individual property risk.

The de-risking action taken in Industrial and our discipline in UK motor illustrates our underwriting culture and commitment to high and stable margins. The fourth quarter once again saw strong and consistent development in underlying margins, as well as yet another improvement in the Nordic cost ratio putting us ahead of the ambition for 2024. The integration of Topdanmark into If P&C provides an opportunity to accelerate Nordic productivity improvements over the coming years.

Turning to capital management, the Board of Directors is proposing a dividend of EUR 1.70 per share for 2024, or EUR 0.34 per share adjusting for the upcoming share split, representing growth of 6 per cent, as we prioritise reliability and a steady trajectory. In addition, I expect that we will launch new buyback programme in 2025, with a new mandate from our Annual General Meeting, funded by capital generated in 2024 and potential disposals of legacy holding company investments. Our commitment to disciplined capital management is unwavering and we will regularly seek to complement dividends with share buybacks.

To conclude, we look to 2025 with great confidence. We have completed our strategic simplification, further rapidly developed our digital abilities and seen strong momentum in the 1 January renewals. Based on this, we have set an outlook for underwriting profit of EUR 1,350–1,450 million for 2025, reflecting our expectation to be able to deliver on our operating EPS growth target of more than 7 per cent per annum on average in 2024–2026.

Torbjörn Magnusson
Group CEO

OUTLOOK

Operating environment and assumptions

The acquisition of Topdanmark in 2024 completed Sampo’s transition into a fully integrated P&C insurance group. Sampo has an attractive operational footprint as the leader in the consolidated Nordic P&C insurance market and a leading operator in the growing digital UK P&C insurance market, positioning the Group to deliver both stability and growth.

Competitive dynamics remain rational across the Group’s areas of operation going into 2025, while demand for P&C insurance is stable despite limited economic growth. Sampo expects claims cost to continue to grow above the long-term trend over the year, driven by factors including rising repair costs for new cars and continued wage and service inflation. At Group level, underlying claims cost is expected to see a mid-single digit per cent increase in 2025, and the Group remains firmly committed to conservatively reflecting this in its pricing.

The strategic and operational investments made by Sampo over recent years have substantially strengthened its competitive position. The Group has unique digital capabilities across distribution, pricing, underwriting, and claims handling that enable it to deliver superior service and efficiency. Further, the integration of Topdanmark into the Group is expected to enable financial benefits through the delivery of scale benefits and synergies.

Outlook for 2025

The outlook for Sampo Group’s 2025 financial performance is:

• Group insurance revenue: EUR 8.7–9.0 billion, representing growth of 4–7 per cent year-on-year.

• Group underwriting result: EUR 1,350–1,450 million, representing growth of 3–10 per cent year-on-year.

The outlook for 2025 is consistent with Sampo’s 2024–2026 financial targets of delivering a combined ratio below 85 per cent and operating EPS growth of more than 7 per cent annually on average.

The outlook is subject to uncertainty related to occurrence and estimation of the cost of P&C claims, investment performance, foreign exchange rates, and competitive dynamics. Revenue forecasts, in particular, are subject to competitive conditions, which may change rapidly in some areas, such as the UK motor insurance market. The revenue and underwriting profit figures in the outlook are based on 31 December 2024 currency exchange rates.

FOURTH QUARTER 2024 IN BRIEF

Strong top-line growth, notably in Private, and positive margin development drove 28 per cent growth in underwriting profits.

Gross written premiums and brokerage income increased by 18 per cent on a currency-adjusted basis and 19 per cent on a reported basis to EUR 2,212 million (1,864) in October-December 2024. The growth was positively affected by Topdanmark’s acquisition of Oona Health as well as a change of inception date for a small group of large industrial contracts from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. Excluding these, the currency adjusted top-line growth was 10 per cent.

Fourth quarter winter weather was fairly normal with claims damage caused mainly by localised events, whereas the prior year was affected by an early start to the winter in the Nordics. In total, severe weather and large claims had 2.3 percentage points negative effect on the Group combined ratio, down from 4.5 percentage points in the comparison period. The Group underlying combined ratio improved by 1.4 percentage points, driven by solid performance across business areas with If reporting an undiscounted adjusted risk ratio improvement of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. The Group combined ratio improved to 83.4 per cent (85.5). The underwriting result increased by 28 per cent on a currency adjusted basis and on a reported basis to EUR 361 million (281) on strong growth.

The net financial result decreased to EUR 62 million (175) driven by lower investment income. Fourth quarter net investment income of EUR 70 million (517) was affected by a rise in interest rates and soft Nordic equity market performance, while the comparison period benefited from exceptionally favourable conditions. IFIE amounted to EUR -7 million (-342), supported by a positive effect of EUR 43 million from changes in discount rates, whereas the comparison period saw a negative effect of EUR -271 million. Unwind of discounting stood at EUR -54 million (-81).

Profit before taxes was EUR 219 million (368). This includes non-recurring costs of around EUR 150 million related to the Topdanmark integration reserved for the fourth quarter, without which quarterly profit before taxes would have been EUR 369 million. Of the restructuring charge, EUR 76 million was booked in the If segment and EUR 73 million in the Topdanmark segment. Operating EPS came in at EUR 0.65 (0.42) on the back of higher underwriting result and stable investment returns.

SAMPO PLC
Board of Directors

The Financial Statement Release for 2024, Investor Presentation and a video review with Group CFO Knut Arne Alsaker are available at www.sampo.com/result.

A conference call for investors and analysts will be arranged today 6 February at 11:00 am Finnish time (9:00 am UK time). Please join the teleconference by registering using the following link:

https://palvelu.flik.fi/teleconference/?id=5004591

The conference call can also be followed live at www.sampo.com/result. A recorded version and a transcript will later be available at the same address.

For more information, please contact

Knut Arne Alsaker, Group CFO, tel. +358 10 516 0010
Sami Taipalus, Head of Investor Relations, tel. +358 10 516 0030
Maria Silander, Communications Manager, Media Relations, tel. +358 10 516 0031

Distribution:
Nasdaq Helsinki
Nasdaq Stockholm
Nasdaq Copenhagen
London Stock Exchange
FIN-FSA
The principal media
www.sampo.com

Attachment

• Sampo's Financial Statements Release 2024