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There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Firstly, we'd want to identify a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and then alongside that, an ever-increasing base of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. However, after investigating Willamette Valley Vineyards (NASDAQ:WVVI), we don't think it's current trends fit the mold of a multi-bagger.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?
For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. The formula for this calculation on Willamette Valley Vineyards is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.006 = US$572k ÷ (US$109m - US$13m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).
Therefore, Willamette Valley Vineyards has an ROCE of 0.6%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Beverage industry average of 17%.
See our latest analysis for Willamette Valley Vineyards
While the past is not representative of the future, it can be helpful to know how a company has performed historically, which is why we have this chart above. If you want to delve into the historical earnings , check out these free graphs detailing revenue and cash flow performance of Willamette Valley Vineyards.
So How Is Willamette Valley Vineyards' ROCE Trending?
On the surface, the trend of ROCE at Willamette Valley Vineyards doesn't inspire confidence. To be more specific, ROCE has fallen from 6.0% over the last five years. However it looks like Willamette Valley Vineyards might be reinvesting for long term growth because while capital employed has increased, the company's sales haven't changed much in the last 12 months. It may take some time before the company starts to see any change in earnings from these investments.
The Bottom Line
In summary, Willamette Valley Vineyards is reinvesting funds back into the business for growth but unfortunately it looks like sales haven't increased much just yet. And investors may be recognizing these trends since the stock has only returned a total of 25% to shareholders over the last five years. As a result, if you're hunting for a multi-bagger, we think you'd have more luck elsewhere.
Willamette Valley Vineyards does come with some risks though, we found 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those is a bit unpleasant...