If we're looking to avoid a business that is in decline, what are the trends that can warn us ahead of time? Businesses in decline often have two underlying trends, firstly, a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining base of capital employed. This reveals that the company isn't compounding shareholder wealth because returns are falling and its net asset base is shrinking. So after we looked into Karin Technology Holdings (SGX:K29), the trends above didn't look too great.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Karin Technology Holdings:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.039 = HK$18m ÷ (HK$1.1b - HK$624m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).

Thus, Karin Technology Holdings has an ROCE of 3.9%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Electronic industry average of 11%.

Check out our latest analysis for Karin Technology Holdings

While the past is not representative of the future, it can be helpful to know how a company has performed historically, which is why we have this chart above. If you want to delve into the historical earnings, revenue and cash flow of Karin Technology Holdings, check out these free graphs here.

How Are Returns Trending?

There is reason to be cautious about Karin Technology Holdings, given the returns are trending downwards. About five years ago, returns on capital were 5.1%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. Since returns are falling and the business has the same amount of assets employed, this can suggest it's a mature business that hasn't had much growth in the last five years. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on Karin Technology Holdings becoming one if things continue as they have.

On a separate but related note, it's important to know that Karin Technology Holdings has a current liabilities to total assets ratio of 57%, which we'd consider pretty high. This can bring about some risks because the company is basically operating with a rather large reliance on its suppliers or other sorts of short-term creditors. While it's not necessarily a bad thing, it can be beneficial if this ratio is lower.