NEW YORK (AP) — The largest retail trade group in the United States said Tuesday that it expects consumers to spend more during the upcoming holiday shopping season but the growth in sales to be slower than last year due to concerns over persistent inflation and prices.

The National Retail Federation said its 2024 forecast indicates that shoppers will make $979.5 billion to $989 billion worth of purchases in November and December, which would represent a 2.5%-3.5% increase over the same two-month period a year ago.

However, the $955.6 billion spent during the 2023 holiday shopping season was 3.9% more than in 2022.

The group makes its calculations based on government figures. The numbers exclude sales at automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

The forecast considers economic indicators such as employment, wages, consumer confidence, disposable income, consumer credit, previous retail sales and weather.