RBS Paid a Big Penalty Over Mortgages. Its Next One May Be Bigger

Even as Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc said Wednesday it would pay $5.5 billion to settle a U.S. lawsuit over its crisis-era mortgage-bond business, it told investors that another big bill may be on the way.

It was referring to an unresolved investigation by the U.S. Justice Department into whether the bank misrepresented the quality of residential mortgage-backed securities it sold a decade ago. RBS is one of the last global banks to face a reckoning with the Justice Department. Its tab could rank near the top of the group, judging by the deal the bank struck this week with the Federal Housing Finance Agency over similar conduct.

Seven banks have resolved mortgage-securities probes with the Justice Department for a total of $44 billion, a set of settlements that have typically come after the banks resolved suits brought by the FHFA, the government s housing-finance agency, over bonds sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Earlier QuickTake Q&A: A Sudden Burst of Activity on Mortgage Litigation

RBS s FHFA penalty was bigger than those paid by Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG and was second only to that of Bank of America Corp. Those four banks went on to reach Justice Department settlements of $6 billion to $12 billion each. If the relationship between FHFA penalties and subsequent Justice Department penalties continues to hold, says Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Elliott Stein, RBS could end up facing a bill exceeding $11 billion, or twice its FHFA settlement.

That s a big if. The FHFA and the Justice Department have calculated penalties using different methods. Also, the earlier agreements were reached with the Obama administration s Justice Department. RBS is now dealing with Attorney General Jeff Sessions, who has yet to put his stamp on crisis-era bank settlements.

Sessions ended an Obama-era practice that allocated a portion of Wall Street settlement money to advocacy groups. Under the new policy, money collected as part of civil and criminal settlements may be used only to reimburse parties to the litigation or to compensate victims. That could limit the scope of any Justice Department agreement with RBS.

The prior cases allowed billions of dollars in penalties to be paid through consumer relief measures -- mortgage modifications, repayment plans and short sales, among other remedies. The Justice Department hasn t said whether those so-called soft-dollar portions of the penalties will be allowed under the new policy.

RBS s shares fell after the announcement of the FHFA settlement on Wednesday and closed 2 percent lower at 251.5 pence in London, paring their gain this year to 12 percent.