India's new central bank governor is likely to be less outspoken than outgoing chief Raghuram Rajan, but no more inclined to easing.
Currently deputy governor at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Urjit Patel will take the helm on September 4 for a three-year term, with a possible two-year extension.
Since 2013, Patel has run the RBI's Department of Monetary Policy and Research, as well as spearheading an expert committee—known as the Urjit Patel Committee Report—that recommended key changes to the country's monetary policy framework. Among the committee recommendations was the creation of a Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), first discussed in 2014 and approved by the government earlier this year.
The MPC will consist of the RBI governor, two RBI employees [one of whom will be Executive Director Michael Patra] and three external members appointed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government. The MPC effectively institutionalizes the government's role in central bank decision-making, making Rajan the last governor to have taken an independent policy decision.
Patel's committee also recommended switching to more flexible inflation targeting based on headline consumer price inflation (CPI) instead of wholesale price inflation (WPI).
The bulk of market players believe the new governor will continue Rajan's policies in the areas of inflation targeting and exchange rates, because they harmonized with Patel's own beliefs.
"We believe, with Dr. Patel's announcement, the RBI's approach to inflation and setting of interest rates will not be very different from that under Governor Rajan, particularly now that the framework has been largely institutionalized," said J.P Morgan economists in a note, referring to the Urjit Patel Committee Report.
On the topic of banking sector reforms, Patel is also set to follow in Rajan's footsteps.
"While Dr. Patel in his current role has not been directly involved in asset quality review process of bank balance sheets, we expect that he is likely to continue the process of cleaning up of bank balance sheets and adhere to the March 2017 deadline set by Dr. Rajan," Goldman Sachs economists noted.
When it comes to Patel's approach to liquidity, however, not all commentators were in unison.
Some banks warned that Patel was unlikely to hold a strong easing bias.
"Markets (and we) were expecting a dovish or neutral candidate to take over as the RBI governor following Rajan. Dr Patel's appointment is a surprise because he is generally seen as hawkish, which may dash hopes of aggressive easing," Nomura said in a note.