ECB Cut, More Inflation Data Feed Rally; Gold Has Surged 24% This Year

Key Takeaways

• The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the second time in three months Thursday, which infused gold markets with enthusiasm.

• U.S. wholesale prices rose just 1.7% in August compared with a year ago, bolstering the case for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts in the U.S. next week. Futures traders expect the Fed to tread lightly while cutting rates for the first time since the pandemic.

• The spot price of gold climbed to another record high Thursday. The price of gold, seen as a safe-haven asset, tends to move inversely to the direction of interest rates.

The price of gold reached another all-time high Thursday as investors gained more confidence that global interest rates will continue falling.

As the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its benchmark rate for the second time in three months, the spot price of gold rose as high as $2,567 per troy ounce, up 1.5% from Wednesday. It marked the latest in an extended string of fresh highs in a year in which gold has surged nearly 24%.

The price of gold, seen as a safe-haven asset, tends to move inversely to the direction of interest rates, and Thursday's rally was no exception. That's because it's increasingly apparent that investors think key global central banks have embarked on a sustained path of cutting interest rates. When rates fall, the yields on lower-risk investments like Treasury bonds can look less favorable when compared with gold.

In addition to the ECB's rate cut, the Bank of England (BOE) cut rates in August for the first time in 4 1/2 years. The BOE meets again next week, and although it may hold rates steady for now, many economists expect it will resume cutting rates in November.

Fed Rate Cut Seen Imminent

The Federal's Reserve latest policy meeting constitutes the biggest global economic event scheduled for next week. With U.S. consumer inflation in August dropping to the lowest level since February 2021, the big question that remains is how much—not if—the Fed will cut rates.

Thursday's release of U.S. wholesale price data for August, showing a 1.7% gain in the past 12 months, lower than the Fed's 2% annual inflation target, further bolstered the case for rate cuts.

Still, based on the fed funds futures market, most traders anticipate the Fed will start slowly as it cuts rates for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic. Eighty-five percent of traders anticipate a cut of 25 basis points (bps), according to CME Group data, with 15% expecting a 50-bps reduction, as of Thursday.

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