Prediction: This Cratering Stock Will Rebound and Be Worth More Than Palantir by the End of 2025

Adam Spatacco, The Motley Fool

Sun, Jan 19, 2025, 7:15 AM 4 min read

Why is Uber stock in a funk?

Last year carried a lot of ups and downs for Uber investors. Through August and September, shares of Uber had actually declined by about 7% on the year. However, the stock swiftly rebounded and soared as high as 37% by October. It really wasn't until December when shares of Uber started to crater.

The culprit behind Uber's sell-off? Concerns surrounding autonomous driving fleets. Specifically, in early December, Alphabet's autonomous vehicle subsidiary, Waymo, announced that it is partnering with a start-up called Moove to help manage its autonomous vehicle fleets. Considering Uber is the main player in ride-hailing, investors were surely confused as to why Waymo is partnering with somebody else.

A person hailing a taxi. — Image source: Getty Images.

Why I think these concerns are overblown

While I understand why investors may see Waymo's decision to work with Moove as disastrous for Uber, there are still a lot of factors to consider before hitting the panic button.

First, Uber is a diversified operation. While ride sharing is its largest source of revenue, the company also operates a delivery platform through assets including Drizly and Postmates -- which focus on alcohol and food delivery. On top of this, Uber has a massive global footprint -- operating in over 70 countries.

Considering adoption for autonomous vehicle fleets is still incredibly nascent, it's highly unlikely that Waymo or any other robotaxi operator is going to dethrone Uber's mobility business overnight.

Lastly, robotaxi fleets are likely going to be rolled out on a city-by-city basis over a long period of time. For this reason, Uber has enormous potential to strike partnerships with players such as Waymo or Tesla, which may see strategic benefit in working with Uber in specific urban environments.

Why Uber could be worth more than Palantir by year-end

As of Jan. 16, Palantir's market capitalization is right around $160 billion. In terms of valuation multiples, this translates into a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 62 and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 341.

By contrast, Uber only trades at a P/S multiple of 3.4, and its P/E ratio of 33 is hovering around all-time lows. The subtle idea at play here is that nothing has actually changed about Uber's fundamentals. Rather, the current sell-off is driven by a narrative that competition in the autonomous vehicle landscape will eat into Uber's market share in the ride-hailing space. However, despite competition from Waymo and Tesla, this idea has yet to unfold at all, let alone at any notable scale.

I think investors will come to realize that Uber is still very well-positioned for long-term growth across various aspects of the mobility market. I think the stock will fall back into favor with investors and bounce back in a meaningful way in 2025.

While Palantir has proven that it is a top player in the artificial intelligence (AI) arena, investor expectations are now sky-high. This notion is underscored in the stretched valuation metrics I called out above. In my eyes, Palantir's current rate of valuation expansion is unsustainable, and the stock is due for some normalization or a pullback.

For these reasons, I think Uber will become a more valuable enterprise than Palantir by the end of this year.

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Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Adam Spatacco has positions in Alphabet, Palantir Technologies, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Palantir Technologies, Tesla, and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Prediction: This Cratering Stock Will Rebound and Be Worth More Than Palantir by the End of 2025 was originally published by The Motley Fool

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