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Talking Points:

• NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat

• New Zealand Dollar pullback stalls at seven-week rising trend line support

• Looking to confirm long-term down trend resumption to enter short position

The New Zealand Dollar found interim support against its US counterpart following a pullback after the formation of a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Prices held above a trend line guiding the move higher since late January, hinting the near-term upside bias remains in place.

A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 0.6614 – a move that would likewise breach trend line support – paves the way for a challenge of the 50% level at 0.6551. Alternatively, a push above the 23.6% Fib at 0.6692 opens the door for a test of the 14.6% expansion at 0.6741.

The longer-term NZD/USD favors the downside, painting the latest upswing as corrective. An actionable selling opportunity is absent for now however. With that in mind, we will remain on the sidelines and wait for prices to offer a short trade signal in line with our2016 fundamental outlook.

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