Novartis AG (NVS): Driving Long-Term Growth with Strong Pipeline and Innovative Products
We recently published a list of 10 Wonderful Stocks to Buy Now at a Fair Price. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Novartis AG (NYSE:NVS) stands against other wonderful stocks to buy now at a fair price.
In H2 of the year so far, there are signs that the S&P 500 index has been broadening beyond technology leadership and the index is reverting to a more normalized state. This means that there are several high-quality stocks outside of the popular names and investors are required to be diversified. This diversification should not be limited to the style level, but also to the stock level. Market experts opine that the AI theme has largely fuelled the narrow market. This concentration, along with an increase in passive investments, resulted in a significant cycle of consensus positioning and stretched valuations. This led to the vulnerability in the market, which resulted in a sharp correction in July and early August.
As per Fidelity International, when it comes to passive investing in the S&P 500, it demonstrates nearly a third of holdings in only 7 stocks. Considering their dominance, a stumble in performance means the index will see a significant impact, and the investors have already seen some mega-cap technology names that are unable to deliver on strong expectations.
S&P 500 Index – Transition and Concentration
The US equities saw an outstanding performance in H1 2024, with the S&P 500 Index rising 15.3%, as per ClearBridge Investments (A Franklin Templeton Company). The investment firm believes that solid earnings results and fiscal stimulus mitigated the influence of higher interest rates. However, the headline performance numbers, aided by a ramp-up in mega-cap stocks and, more specifically, semiconductor leadership, eclipsed the recent signs of deterioration below the surface.
Since the Mag 7 stocks have disproportionately driven earnings growth over the previous 2 years, ClearBridge Investments expects a rebound in earnings among small-cap stocks in the upcoming 12– 18 months. The investment firm believes that small-cap companies have seen the impacts of higher rates. In 2023, profits for Russell 2000 companies declined ~12%. This year, they are up ~13.6%, and for 2025, the projections hover at around ~31%. If this happens, there might be a broadening of the market which should provide an opportunity for active managers.
Opportunities Apart from Magnificent Seven
Companies that are unable to meet hefty expectations might see a disproportionate sell-off, and the stocks riding the wave of AI might be significantly exposed considering the amount of capital deployed versus the uncertain future environment. Given such trends, Fidelity International believes it is unsurprising that so far in H2 2024, there have been signs that the S&P 500 is broadening beyond tech leadership, with some non-tech sectors surpassing the broader market.
There are abundant high-quality stocks apart from the popular names. This means that dozens of companies in the S&P 500 continue to offer a return on invested capital (ROIC) and earnings growth of more than 30%. This is true for several other quality metrics, reflecting an underappreciated depth of opportunity in the broader US equities.
While diversification remains critical, even looking beyond the Magnificent Seven might not necessarily offer the required diversification considering that the US market remains heavily weighted towards growth sectors like IT. As per Fidelity International, diversified portfolios need negative correlations between assets, but few styles provide consistent negative correlations to quality growth companies. That being said, cyclical value and defensive value remain 2 key exceptions.
To get a negative correlation, the investors are required to avoid an overlap at the stock level. As of now, the US market provides a range of attractive stock opportunities that offer this valuable diversification.
As per ClearBridge Investments, the top 5 stocks now constitute ~27% of the S&P 500 and the top 10 make up ~37%. As per the investment firm, this concentration might stagnate near current levels, with mega caps delivering solid, but slower, earnings growth in comparison to the recent past. The investment firm expects that diversified portfolios should outperform in the upcoming 12–18 months.
With this in mind, we will now have a look at 10 Wonderful Stocks to Buy Now at a Fair Price.
Our methodology
We first sifted through multiple online rankings and ETFs to identify quality stocks with wide moats. Next, we selected stocks that were trading at a forward P/E of less than ~23.65x (since the broader market trades at a forward multiple of ~23.65, as per WSJ). The stocks are ranked in ascending order of the number of hedge funds that have stakes in them, as of Q2 2024.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
A doctor holding a microscope in front of a laboratory sample of healthcare products.
Novartis AG (NYSE:NVS)
Expected Earnings Growth: 8.3%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 30
Forward P/E Multiple (As of September 30): 14.16x
Novartis AG (NYSE:NVS) is engaged in the research, development, manufacture, and marketing of healthcare products in Switzerland and internationally.
Novartis AG (NYSE:NVS)’s wide economic moat revolves around its strong intellectual property aiding its multibillion-dollar products and an abundance of late-pipeline products. As a result of its strong position in multiple key therapeutic areas, Novartis AG (NYSE:NVS) appears to be well-placed for steady long-term cash flows. The company’s solid late-stage pipeline is expected to augment its long-term growth prospects.
Wall Street believes that the company’s products such as Kesimpta, Kisgali, and Cosentyx should aid its revenue and core operating income growth in the upcoming quarters. Moreover, Novartis AG (NYSE: NVS) remains optimistic about its innovative pipeline and capital allocation strategy. While the company continues to expand its portfolio with FDA submissions, it anticipates exceeding the peak sales guidance for Cosentyx, Kesimpta, and Entresto.
The company has been expanding its medicine canalumab in other immunology indications and anticipates protection till the mid to late 2030s. In Q2 2024, Novartis AG (NYSE:NVS) saw its operating income (continuing operations) coming at USD 4.0 billion, reflecting a growth of 47% on a constant currency basis. This growth stemmed from higher net sales and lower impairments, partly offset by increased R&D investments.
For FY 2024, the company expects its net sales to grow by high single to low double-digit, while its core operating income is anticipated to increase by mid-to-high teens. Analysts at The Goldman Sachs Group restated a “Neutral” rating, giving a $121.00 price target on 5th September.
Aristotle Capital Management, LLC, an investment management company, released its second-quarter 2024 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“We have been investors in the Swiss pharmaceutical company Novartis AG (NYSE:NVS) for over a decade, having first purchased shares in 2011. During our holding period, the company has undergone significant changes. Vasant (“Vas”) Narasimhan was promoted to CEO in 2018 and, we believe, has positively influenced the company’s culture and helped shift the business more toward innovative medicines. Examples include the sale of Novartis’s consumer (over-the-counter) joint venture; the divestiture of its vaccines and animal health businesses; the spinoff of Alcon, a global leader in the treatment of eye diseases and eye conditions (also an International Equity holding); and most recently, the spinoff of generics manufacturer Sandoz. As part of its portfolio transformation, Novartis has been able to improve its margins and gain share of branded pharmaceuticals. With many catalysts having neared completion, we decided to sell Novartis to fund the purchase of what we believe is a more optimal investment in Roche.”
Overall, NVS ranks 10th on our list of Wonderful Stocks to Buy Now at a Fair Price. While we acknowledge the potential of NVS as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some deeply undervalued AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for a deeply undervalued AI stock that is more promising than NVS but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
READ NEXT: $30 Trillion Opportunity: 15 Best Humanoid Robot Stocks to Buy According to Morgan Stanley and Jim Cramer Says NVIDIA ‘Has Become A Wasteland’
Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.