Move over, Fed: Europe's central banker could rev up markets Thursday

Move over, Fed: Europe's central banker could rev up markets Thursday · CNBC

The Fed can take the day off Thursday. All eyes will be on Europe's Central Bank (ECB) chief Mario Draghi.

The European Central Bank president speaks ahead of the Wall Street open at 8:30 a.m. EDT, after a much anticipated ECB meeting statement at 7:45 a.m. Speculation about what the ECB will do has been swirling around the globe, including talk that it could buy bank bonds and even equities ETFs.

Oil could also be a factor for markets Thursday. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 1.5 percent to $45.50 per barrel Wednesday and then rose above $46 in late trading when American Petroleum Industry data showed a sharp, unexpected plunge in inventories of both oil and gasoline. U.S. government inventory data is expected from the Department of Energy Thursday morning.


Traders around the world are watching a string of big central banker meetings this month , with the ECB and Bank of Japan (BOJ) easing at full throttle, while the Fed takes the opposite path - toward a rate hike. The ECB is not expected to move on rates Thursday, but it could extend the time frame for asset purchases past next March and maybe even announce new assets to buy.

"I thought the ECB was going to expand the purchases to other securities. It seems that we're prone to some disappointment from Draghi tomorrow. He's not going to pull another rabbit out of his hat, and maybe yields will go higher tomorrow around the globe," said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank.

The Fed and Bank of Japan meet later in the month on the same days, Sept. 20 and 21.

The ECB is the most anticipated event for Thursday's market. There is a Fed speaker - Kansas City Fed President Esther George at 2 p.m. at a conference on exploring financial resiliency and mobility. There is also little data with weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. and consumer credit at 3 p.m.

"Everyone now is of the opinion that the Fed's going to take a pass" at its next meeting, said Wedbush Securities managing director Steve Massocca. "So are we waiting for the September employment report on the first Friday of October? Is that the next piece of news that matters?"

Traders may be more immediately watching the behavior of Apple stock, after it defied its usual pattern of selling off on days of iPhone announcements.

According to analytics firm Kensho, Apple stock has ended the day in the red 80 percent of the time after an iPhone announcement, then traded higher the next day 70 percent of the time, for an average gain of nearly 1 percent. But Apple shares gained 0.6 percent Wednesday after Apple unveiled the iPhone 7.