Bitcoin's current market dynamics are being shaped by conflicting narratives, with long-term holders standing firm despite claims of capitulation. According to data from CryptoQuant’s Onchained, long-term Bitcoin holders have not shown significant selling pressure. The Inactive Supply Shift Index (ISSI) reinforces this, indicating that long-held Bitcoin remains relatively stable, defying market sentiment that suggests holders are panicking. Onchained emphasized that these narratives often lack on-chain validation and are instead driven by market speculation, advising investors to trust data over sensational claims.
Meanwhile, analysts are questioning long-held market beliefs, including the relevance of the four-year Bitcoin cycle, which links price movements to the cryptocurrency’s halving events. Michael van de Poppe from MN Trading Capital proposed that this cycle might no longer apply, suggesting that altcoins are following a different, longer cycle. Matt Hougan from Bitwise Investment shared a similar view, stating that the shift in U.S. government policy could alter the predictable four-year cycle, creating a new market phase that may span over a decade.
However, some analysts are predicting the end of the current Bitcoin bull market. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju expressed concerns, stating that Bitcoin's on-chain metrics signal the start of a bear market, predicting 6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action. Ju pointed to the drying up of fresh liquidity and new whales selling Bitcoin at lower prices as contributing factors.
These varying opinions illustrate the tension between data and market sentiment. Despite bearish signals, long-term holders remain resilient, continuing to hold onto their Bitcoin. This contrasts with the broader narrative that Bitcoin's value is in decline, influenced by trade war fears and macroeconomic factors. Analysts warn against being swayed by misleading narratives that lack data-backed support. They stress that verifiable on-chain data remains the most reliable indicator of market trends, advising investors to be cautious and focus on data rather than speculative headlines.