The Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to reduce interest rates this week, providing a much-needed reprieve for borrowers. However, expectations for a further cut before the end of the year have dwindled in the wake of the autumn budget.

On Thursday, the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce its latest decision, with economists polled by Reuters forecasting a quarter-point reduction in the benchmark rate, bringing it down to 4.75%. This follows the Bank’s first rate cut in over four years, made in August.

However, markets are now less optimistic about the likelihood of another rate reduction before Christmas.

Read more on Yahoo Finance UK

There are no prizes for guessing what's moving Trump Media stock on Tuesday, as the long awaited election day kicks off in the US. Despite the uncertain result, the company is building on a 12.4% gain from yesterday in premarket trade today, looking at a more than 10% bump at the opening bell.

The jump comes despite a report that it has been outsourcing jobs to Mexico to run the company — a move contradictory to Trump's stance that businesses that outsource work in a similar fashion should be punished. The move was first reported in ProPublica.

For the year-to-date Trump Media stock has nearly doubled in price.

From our US colleagues:

Despite the chatter about the risks surrounding Americans' trip to the polls on Tuesday, election days aren't historically that bad for the stock market.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose on e of the 10 election days the stock market has been open since 1980. If we include both the day of and the day after the election combined, the index has been a bit more fussy, falling half of the time.

A similar story has played out for the month. The S&P 500 has fallen in five of the past 10 election Novembers.

But zoom out, and the story improves.

Read more on Yahoo Finance

With £185m staked, the majority of money placed on this election currently puts Trump ahead.

“Betfair Exchange punters fancy him to win Pennsylvania, which most commentators believe will be the key with its 19 electoral college votes. He’s also ahead in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina," said Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom.

Betfair expects the odds to move as the deadline for polls closing nears.

“Four years ago, a staggering £130 million was bet in the 12 hours once the polls closed in the US, and we’re bracing ourselves for a bumper night tonight as this unprecedented race to the White House comes to a crescendo," Rosbottom added.

Yahoo Finance UK's Pedro Goncalves writes:

Oil markets saw a modest uptick in early European trading, stabilising after a recent surge in prices. Traders are now looking for further guidance from both the US presidential election and a significant political gathering in China.

Brent crude futures rose by 0.2%, trading at $75.23 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) gained 0.3%, reaching $71.67 per barrel during early European trading.

The price action comes amid anticipation of stimulus measures from China, where the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC) began a four-day session on Monday. The NPC is expected to approve additional fiscal spending, particularly after Beijing unveiled a series of fiscal policies aimed at supporting economic growth.

Any signs of concrete stimulus from China — currently the world’s largest crude importer — could provide a boost to oil prices, which have been under pressure recently due to concerns over declining demand in the country.

The British pound traded higher against the US dollar, up by 0.2% to $1.2974, as markets prepared for the start of the US presidential election. With the election set to kick off in the North American session, investors will focus on any developments in the race between vice president Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, stabilised following a sharp sell-off on Monday. The decline came after a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll indicated that Harris leads Trump by three percentage points in Iowa — a key battleground state where Trump triumphed in 2016 and 2020.

The pound is also benefiting from expectations surrounding the Bank of England’s (BoE) upcoming policy meeting on Thursday. Markets anticipate that the BoE will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75%.

Against the euro (GBPEUR=X), sterling was slightly higher, trading at €1.1914.

Read more on Yahoo Finance UK

According to the latest S&P PMI, October saw the:

• Slowest rise in business activity since November 2023

• Weaker upturn in new work, but stronger export sales growth

• Employment fall for first time in 2024 to date

"The wait for clarity on government policy ahead of the Autumn Budget was widely reported to have weighed on business confidence and spending," said Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"Broader geopolitical concerns and forthcoming US elections also added to a sense of wait-and-see on business investment decisions in October. At the same time, cost of living pressures remained a constraint on household spending."

"Higher wages resulted in another month of strong input cost inflation across the service economy. The overall rate of inflation edged up to a three-month high, but remained much weaker than seen on average in the first half of 2024.

"Output charge inflation meanwhile held close to the 43-month low seen in September, with the latest reading consistent with a longer-term trend of decelerating price pressures across the service sector."

Losses at former online retail darling Asos (ASC.L) have mounted this financial year and sales have tumbled around 16%, the company revealed as it posted results on Tuesday.

Losses before tax surged by 80% to £126m — worse figures than expected.

The company is in the midst of an operational turnaround which could take years rather than quarters. Stock is around 7.9% lower in early trade, and down 11.4% for the year-to-date.

Asian stock markets headed higher on Tuesday, with the Nikkei (^N225) popping following a public holiday. The Japanese benchmark index rose more than 1.1% in the session.

The moves higher follow data that shows China's service activity has expanded at the fastest clip since July.

The Hang Seng (^HSI) was 2.1% higher in Hong Kong.

US stocks are relatively calm ahead of polling day.

From our US team:

US stocks slipped during a jittery session on Monday to kick off a week of potentially huge market-moving events — the presidential election and the Federal Reserve policy decision.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped 0.3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell by about the same amount. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) led the declines, falling about 250 points, or 0.6%.

Monday's session was choppy ahead of Tuesday's election, a big risk event for markets. The new president — whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump — will set the course for the economy in the years that follow. The neck-and-neck race has investors bracing for volatility on Election Day itself.

Weekend polls showed Harris with a shock lead in Iowa and gaining ground elsewhere — a sign the Democrat has a better chance of winning than Wall Street had calculated. The dollar dropped by the most in a month as traders recalculated bets on a Trump victory. Treasury yields also retreated, with the 10-year benchmark yield (^TNX) sliding almost 10 basis points to about 4.30%.

Hello from London. It's a big day — an enormous day — where, after many months of sparring, the US goes to the polls to decide its next president.

Alongside this there are a slew of corporate updates and earnings, notably from Nintendo (NTDOY), Aramco (2222.SR) and Ferrari (RACE).

Let's get to it.