First-quarter real GDP actually declined by 0.7 percent, according to revisions out this week, creating much new talk about recession. But there is no recession. Trouble is, there continues to be virtually no recovery.
The economy has expanded about 1.5 percent over the past two quarters, 2.4 percent at an annual rate over the past two years, and about 2.3 percent during this six-year, so-called recovery. That's the real problem. Not a one-quarter snowstorm or inaccurate seasonal adjustments.
Following the deepest recession since World War II, a normal recovery should have featured an outsized rebound. The Reagan years exemplified that model. But it hasn't happened. Why?
On the eve of the Republican primaries, here's the big question: What must we do to restore America's long-term economic-growth performance, which is roughly 3.4 percent per year? Answer: 5 percent growth for the next decade.
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Today's economy is about $2 trillion below that long-term trend line. And the absence of normal growth is a big part of 15 million fewer jobs and a 10.8 percent U-6 unemployment rate (marginally attached workers, part-timers who want full-time work, people who have given up).
There are federal-entitlement disincentives at play, but a normal growth path would have produced many more jobs and a higher employment-to-population rate. And while I have written on family breakup as a huge source of poverty, the absence of economic growth is surely part of the problem.
And here's a point for those who worry about federal debt and deficits. According to the CBO, a 1-percent increase in real economic growth would lower the deficit by about $3 trillion over ten years. In other words, growth solves a lot of problems.
And it's high time for growth.
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A little history: Despite the urban legend of a booming 1950s, there were three recessions under Dwight D. Eisenhower and an average growth rate of only 2.5 percent. Then, in the spring of 1960, Nelson Rockefeller sat down with presidential hopeful Richard Nixon and hammered out the so-called Fifth Avenue compact, headlined by a 5 percent growth target. And almost at the same time, Senator John F. Kennedy entered a 5 percent growth target into his campaign. By the way, with JFK's supply-side tax cut, the 1960s registered nearly 5 percent growth.
So, how about some Republican leadership today, with all the candidates pushing for a 5 percent economic-growth target? It's exactly what we need to get back to America's long-term prosperity trend, which had long ensured our world leadership. We don't have that today. Unfortunately, it's just as Ronald Reagan warned: Weakness at home creates weakness abroad.