June Gold: Strong Over $1958.70, Weak Under $1932.90

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Gold futures are edging lower early Thursday, pressured by a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields and a little strength in the U.S. Dollar.

Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields inched up after they fell from three-year highs on Wednesday. Higher yields tend to increase the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield bullion, which reduces its attractiveness to investors. The dollar also strengthened after dropping in the previous session, making dollar-denominated gold less attractive to foreign buyers.

At 04:06 GMT, June Comex gold futures are trading $1953.10, down $2.50 or -0.13%. On Wednesday, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) settled at $182.67, up $0.85 or +0.47%.

Attempting to Recover from Tuesday’s Steep Break

On Tuesday, gold prices fell as much as 1.8% as hawkish comments from U.S. central bank officials, including St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard, propelled the dollar and 10-year yields to multiyear highs, Reuters reported.

The yield on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or real yields, touched two-year highs on Wednesday, briefly rising into positive territory for a second straight day.

Daily June Comex Gold
Daily June Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower. A trade through $2003.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through $1916.20 will change the main trend to down.

The market is currently trading inside a long-term retracement zone at $1958.70 to $1908.10. Additional support is being provided by the main retracement zone at $1932.90 to $1897.70.

The two retracement zones combine to form a support cluster at $1908.10 to $1897.70.

The short-term range is $2082.00 to $1893.20. Its retracement zone at $1987.60 to $2009.90 is resistance. This zone stopped the buying at $2003.00 on Monday.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June Comex gold futures contract on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $1958.70.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1958.70 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is $1932.90. Buyers could come in on the first test of this level, but if it fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into $1908.10 to $1897.70.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1958.70 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the short-term 50% level at $1987.60, followed by the main top at $2003.00 and the short-term Fibonacci level at $2009.90. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.