Jobs Data in Focus
Economic & Earnings Commentary
Pre-market futures are down this morning following a modest up-week across major indexes. Nothing major at this hour — it looks like a slight roll-back ahead of a new Jobs Week, which gets underway tomorrow. The Dow is -81 points currently, the Nasdaq is -74 and the S&P 500 is -17 points.
What’s Expected for Jobs Week in the Stock Market?
We have a plethora of data set to hit the tape this week, from S&P PMI and ISM Manufacturing and Services reports, Construction Spending, Auto Sales, Weekly Jobless Claims and Factory Orders. We’re still five weeks away from the next Fed meeting that will decide monetary policy on interest rates, which came down to 4.75-5.00% earlier this month.
But the fact that this is Jobs Week will command much of this week’s market attention. Starting with Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data tomorrow morning after the opening bell and concluding with Friday’s non-farm payroll report from the U.S. government. The JOLTS numbers, which are for August, not September, are expected to show 7.7 million job openings last month, with 0.9 unemployed Americans per job opening — the highest rate we’ve seen since June 2021.
We follow this up with private-sector payroll results from Automatic Data Processing ADP for September. Last time around, only 99K private-sector jobs were filled, making it the least productive month on ADP data since January of 2021. We look for these numbers to cross back over 100K, but not by much.
Weekly Jobless Claims have been the most well-behaved of all employment numbers of late, still bringing in new claims in the low 200Ks per week, with longer-term claims hovering in the low 1.8 millions. Part of this may have to do with laid-off Americans of a certain age — the youngest of the Baby Boomers and now the oldest Gen-Xers — simply opting for retirement instead of filing for jobless claims.
Friday’s Employment Situation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is the big report of the week. Here we are also seeing a diminished rate of new hires — 142K in last month’s report; 144K expected for September — but at least they are covering the overall number of monthly retirees. Unemployment cvame in at +4.2% in August’s report, which is ticking higher but still historically low.
DirecTV Takes Dish, Sling TV Off EchoStar’s Hands
EchoStar SATS shares are up this morning by almost +9% on news that DirecTV will be buying out the contract for Dish and Sling TV for $1. DirecTV will also assume $9.75 billion in EchoStar debt via a discount exchange offer. This will amount to a reduction in EchoStar debt to the tune of $11.7 billion. Also, AT&T T will be selling its 70% stake in DirecTV. The deal would bring about the largest pay-TV provider in the U.S.
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