Investing in BP Plastics Holding Bhd (KLSE:BPPLAS) three years ago would have delivered you a 123% gain

By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you buy good businesses at attractive prices, your portfolio returns could exceed the average market return. Just take a look at BP Plastics Holding Bhd (KLSE:BPPLAS), which is up 90%, over three years, soundly beating the market decline of 4.5% (not including dividends).

So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

View our latest analysis for BP Plastics Holding Bhd

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During three years of share price growth, BP Plastics Holding Bhd achieved compound earnings per share growth of 20% per year. We don't think it is entirely coincidental that the EPS growth is reasonably close to the 24% average annual increase in the share price. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. Quite to the contrary, the share price has arguably reflected the EPS growth.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
earnings-per-share-growth

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, BP Plastics Holding Bhd's TSR for the last 3 years was 123%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that BP Plastics Holding Bhd shareholders are down 5.8% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 1.4%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 18%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand BP Plastics Holding Bhd better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 4 warning signs for BP Plastics Holding Bhd (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

But note: BP Plastics Holding Bhd may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on MY exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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