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Here's Why Hold Strategy is Apt for Canadian Natural Stock Now
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ is one of Canada’s largest oil and gas companies, involved in everything from exploring and developing new energy sources to producing and selling crude oil and natural gas. With a diverse portfolio that includes oil sands, natural gas and conventional oil, CNQ is well-positioned to handle changes in the energy market. The company operates in key areas like Western Canada, the North Sea and offshore Africa, offering a wide range of valuable resources, including Synthetic Crude Oil (“SCO”).
Is it right time to invest in CNQ stock? Should you buy, hold or sit it out? There are several key factors to weigh before making your decision. Let us dive into what is driving CNQ’s performance, strengths that make it an attractive stock for some investors and risks that might make others think twice.
What is Driving CNQ Stock?
Diversified & Resilient Asset Base: The oil and gas exploration and production company operates with one of the most robust portfolios in the energy sector, balancing oil sands, thermal in situ projects, natural gas and conventional oil. More than 79% of CNQ’s liquid production comes from long-life, low-decline assets, such as its oil sands mining and upgrading operations, which produce high-value SCO. This balanced portfolio allows the company to allocate capital to high-return projects without over-reliance on a single commodity. For investors, this diversification ensures stability across different market cycles.
Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: In third-quarter 2024, CNQ generated C$3.9 billion in adjusted funds flow, enabling it to fund dividends, buybacks and strategic growth projects. The company’s ability to consistently produce high levels of free cash flow, even during volatile commodity price environments, highlights its financial strength. For long-term investors, this is a sign of stability and strong cash management, making CNQ a potentially reliable income-generating stock.
Track Record of Dividend Growth: CNQ has increased its dividend for 25 consecutive years, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 21%. The most recent dividend increase of 7% demonstrates management’s confidence in the sustainability of cash flows. For investors seeking consistent income, CNQ is a high-yield dividend growth stock.
Strategic Growth Through Acquisitions: CNQ’s acquisition of Chevron’s CVX stakes in the Athabasca Oil Sands Project and Duvernay play is set to boost daily production by 122,500 barrels by 2025. These valuable assets not only diversify CNQ’s portfolio but also reinforce its ability to generate consistent and sustainable free cash flow, even during market downturns.
Commitment to Innovation and Sustainability: CNQ invests in technologies like solvent-assisted recovery and carbon capture, utilization and storage, aiming to reduce emissions while enhancing recovery. These efforts align with global environmental trends and position the company as a forward-thinking leader in the energy sector, appealing to ESG-conscious investors.
What are the Potential Risks for CNQ Stock?
Exposure to Commodity Price Volatility: CNQ’s financial performance is heavily dependent on crude oil and natural gas prices. While the company has a low breakeven point (low $40s WTI), prolonged periods of weak pricing could pressure cash flow and profitability. Investors should consider this risk, especially if they are conservative or looking for less cyclical investments.
Competition for Capital Allocation: With diverse assets such as the Montney, Duvernay and Clearwater plays, CNQ faces the challenge of optimizing capital allocation. If high-return projects are delayed or underfunded, growth potential could be compromised. Investors should monitor how effectively the company manages its capital to maximize CNQ’s shareholder value.
Pipeline & Market Access Risks: Despite increased capacity, CNQ still relies heavily on pipelines for transporting crude oil. Delays in projects like TMX or geopolitical tensions affecting market access could lead to revenue constraints. Investors should consider these operational dependencies when evaluating the stock.
Recent Stock Performance Concerns: CNQ's share price has decreased 10.4% in the past six months, trailing its peers in the Canadian Oil and Gas Exploration and Production sub-industry. In comparison, Tourmaline Oil Corp. TRMLF and Arc Resources AETUF have posted rise of 6.8% and 5.6%, respectively. This underperformance may indicate investors’ concerns and could potentially impact CNQ's valuation in the near term.
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Regulatory & Environmental Challenges: CNQ operates in a sector under increasing regulatory scrutiny, particularly concerning greenhouse gas emissions. Regulatory changes or higher carbon taxes could increase costs, affecting margins. Investors focused on long-term growth may view this as a material risk to CNQ’s sustainability.
Verdict for CNQ Stock
CNQ offers a strong and diversified asset base, robust free cash flow generation and a proven track record of dividend growth, making it an appealing option for long-term investors. The company’s strategic acquisitions and commitment to innovation and sustainability further strengthen its outlook, positioning CNQ as a forward-thinking leader in the energy sector.
However, risks such as exposure to commodity price volatility, capital allocation challenges, pipeline dependencies and regulatory pressures could pose potential concerns. Additionally, recent underperformance in the stock price relative to peers and increasing scrutiny from regulators may affect CNQ’s short-term valuation and sustainability. Given this mix of strengths and potential challenges, investors should wait for a more opportune entry point instead of adding this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock to their portfolios. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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